Con la sospecha de muerte de Yevgeny Prigozhin después de un accidente aéreo cerca de Moscú, surgen dudas sobre quién podría ser el responsable y qué podría significar la muerte de un aliado convertido en adversario para el presidente ruso Vladimir Putin.

Moscow

The Russian economy has been impacted by a raft of global sanctions as world leaders try to pressure Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.

Russian Sanctions

Lo que significa la muerte de Prigozhin para Putin

Bueno, lo sabemos, Adrian, por supuesto, Yevgeny Prigozhin se convirtió en una figura central debido a la guerra en Ucrania. pero creo que todavía era en gran medida una figura bastante marginal dentro de Rusia hasta ese motín. Y eso de repente dio a muchos grupos en Rusia quizás un gran motivo para vengarse. Obviamente, Prigozhin avergonzó a Vladimir Putin. Le hacía parecer débil, en primer lugar, por no poder detener a Prigozhin y sus amotinados. tomar ciudades como Rostov y marchar sobre Moscú. Y luego volvió a hacer que Putin pareciera débil cuando tuvo que llegar a un acuerdo con Prigozhin. donde no sería castigado y podría seguir dirigiendo a Wagner. Es posible que muchos miembros del Ministerio de Defensa también estuvieran furiosos. ya que algunos de los objetivos favoritos de las críticas de Prigozhin eran los principales generales de Rusia. Si Putin hizo esto, y no suceden muchas cosas de esta magnitud en Rusia sin su aprobación, si matara a otro rival más, sería más de lo que hemos visto en el pasado. Esto es lo que pasa si me cruzas. Si es alguna otra rama del gobierno ruso responsable, entonces también es significativo porque podría insinuar quizás la creciente naturaleza caótica del gobierno de Rusia que, aunque Putin está a cargo, otros actores ahora se sienten lo suficientemente audaces como para tomar una decisión tan importante por sí solos. Bien, analicemos un poco esto. Si Putin ordenó este asesinato, ¿es una coincidencia que hayan pasado exactamente dos meses? ¿Hasta el día desde aquel golpe fallido en Moscú? Quiero decir, ¿cree tanto en el simbolismo? ¿Por qué esperar dos meses para hacer esto? Sabes, uno de mis dichos favoritos es, Creo en las coincidencias pero también creo en el Kremlin. No sé si realmente hay mucha coincidencia y mucho de lo que sucede. Ya sabes, una posible explicación para este retraso, si fuera a suceder, puede haber sido para darle tiempo a los servicios de seguridad para descubrir ¿Quién más podría haber estado involucrado en este motín? investigar cuánto apoyo tenía Prigozhin dentro del ejército ruso, tal vez incluso dentro del gobierno de Rusia. Y también es interesante que sucedió pocas horas después del anuncio. que el ex máximo comandante de la guerra de Rusia en Ucrania, Sergei Sovikin, había sido despedido de sus cargos. No se le había visto desde aquel motín. Ahora, en tan sólo unas horas, estos dos jugadores clave se han ido. Y entonces podremos ver más evidencia de purgas, Adrian, tal vez en los próximos días. Así que eso habría sido mucho para que la gente en Rusia lo digiera hoy. ¿Cuál es su sensación de cuál ha sido la reacción allí? Bueno, un grupo clave a seguir, tal vez el grupo más importante desde el principio, Es observar la reacción de los mercenarios de Wagner. Todavía se cuentan por decenas de miles. Muchos están en Bielorrusia. Son luchadores experimentados. Algunos ya han marchado sobre Moscú una vez y otros juran que quieren hacerlo de nuevo. Aunque ahora todo el liderazgo de Wagner parece haber sido aniquilado. Algunos propagandistas rusos en realidad están tratando de ignorar esto, diciendo que realmente no es importante o que Prokhozhin, tal vez incluso logró fingir su propia muerte. Un último pensamiento para ti aquí. ¿Cuál es tu instinto sobre la variedad de cosas que podrían suceder a continuación? Bueno, Wagner, como digo, su futuro parece muy incierto. Los grupos han sido una gran parte del objetivo del Kremlin de mostrar el poder militar ruso. en todo el mundo en Siria y África. ¿Podrán los militares rusos hacerse cargo de las operaciones de Wagner? ¿Se disolverá Wagner? Realmente es demasiado pronto para saberlo. En cuanto a la guerra en Ucrania, no veo muchos cambios allí. El motín de Prokhozhin casi no tuvo impacto en los combates de primera línea. y ahora los combatientes de Wagner han sido retirados. Aun así, sus soldados mataron a miles de ucranianos. Son responsables de crímenes de guerra y atrocidades, incluida la castración de prisioneros ucranianos. Creo que habrá alegría por su partida. Y por último, por supuesto, Vladimir Putin. Para él, la persona que planteó la mayor amenaza a su gobierno en dos décadas, ahora está muerto. Y no parece haber nadie más, Adrian, a la vista, que esté en condiciones de desafiarlo. Chris Brown, siempre agradezco tu conocimiento. Gracias. Está bien.

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Russian Sanctions