Name: How online prediction markets got people betting on nuclear war
Uploaded: 2026-03-18T16:08:18.607Z
Duration: 4 min 17 s
Description: Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are allowing users to gamble on political catastrophes.

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are allowing users to gamble on political catastrophes.

Online prediction markets, including PolyMarket and Cauchy, have experienced a rise in bets on high-stakes geopolitical events such as nuclear war, especially following recent conflicts involving the US, Israel, and Iran. These platforms, valued in the billions, allow users to wager on a wide range of outcomes, from political events to entertainment, but have drawn criticism for enabling bets on catastrophic scenarios and for potential insider trading.

Concerns have intensified after suspicious betting activity preceded major events, such as the US-Iran conflict, and following revelations that prominent figures, including Donald Trump Jr., are involved with these platforms. Lawmakers have introduced legislation to restrict government officials from participating in such markets, but regulatory challenges and support from the Trump administration have complicated efforts to impose stricter controls.

How online prediction markets got people betting on nuclear war

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Breakdown