A winter storm that races from the Midwest to the East Coast will lead to accumulating snow in major cities. AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish breaks down the details.

Philadelphia

Meteorologists are forecasting the first significant snowfall of the season for major Northeast cities including Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. The snow is expected to arrive with a strengthening clipper system moving through the region, primarily affecting the I-95 corridor between Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Forecast models predict one to three inches of snow for most major cities, with locally higher amounts possible in parts of South Jersey, Central Delaware, and eastern Maryland. After the snow, a short period of frigid air will be followed by a gradual warming trend in the Northeast by later in the week.

What to know about the first snow of the winter in Philly, New York

It's time for the forecast feed, and as we close out this week, we are looking ahead to our first accumulating snow of the season in Philadelphia, New York City, and probably Boston, but we're also going to be dealing with some more really cold air, frigid air that immediately follows this system. Then we're going to see a big warm-up from the frigid to the 40s for many in the Northeast gradually next week. I think sometimes it's easy to kind of expect the warmth too soon. We're going to have a couple of really cold days, but by mid and latter parts of the week we're going to warm up. Let's take a look at this first clipper. Actually, it's the second clipper in a series, but the first clipper is moving through right now, racing through the mid-Atlantic coast and weakening. So what gets our attention is the second clipper. That's the one that's going to bring us some accumulating snow to I-95. We've already seen significant snow this season down in Southern Virginia on two occasions near the North Carolina line, even in low elevations down to sea level, but there's been kind of a hole on the map for snow from Philadelphia and areas like Wilmington, Delaware up to New York City and even into Boston and Point South. But as we take a look at this next disturbance, so the clipper number one that moved through the Midwest, again, in a path very similar to the second clipper, it's really weakened. This first one is flattening out and it's not digging much deeper. It's actually lifting away. Here's the NAM showing that the big bright colored blob there over Morgantown, West Virginia. That's an area of stronger vorticity, spin in the atmosphere. You'll notice it doesn't really dig any farther south. It just goes east and pulls out. And then the European, similar story. We're not going to find much disagreement between those models in the short term. But as we look at the next clipper, again, it takes a very similar path through the Midwest and the Plains, but then after cruising through the Ohio Valley, this really amplifies. It continues to dig Sunday, 7 p.m. compared to what we're doing with the first one. Here's again, 7 p.m. Friday compared to 7 p.m. Sunday. Very different appearance here with the depth of the trough as this amplifies and it still moves quickly. It races east. It's not going to be with us for long, but it will be a bit of a strengthening system as it reaches I-95. And the business side of the storm is actually going to be before the trough arrives. So it's really Saturday night to Sunday morning. But at least during that time, the storm will be in a posture of strengthening with a deepening trough at that time. So we're going to begin to see this scare up a little more lift in the atmosphere east of the trough and that will lead to accumulating snow for I-95. It would actually be a bigger snow storm about 500 miles farther east or 800 miles farther east. But again, that's out over the ocean and not much of an issue. So let's take a look at what this looks like here with the actual deterministic snowfall forecast. Clipper number one, after bringing some snow to the Midwest, it really dries up here. You can see as we kind of go back in time, West Virginia, Virginia, not much to see out there. Here's the NAM. You can see how that just kind of dried up and we're seeing a little bit of light rain and snow mixed in parts of Virginia. Number two digs in though and this is in a posture of strengthening as it reaches the east coast. There will be a zone here where there's going to be some generally some down sloping. So there's an area where there's kind of not going to be a whole lot under an inch for some from maybe Williamsport, PA down into central Maryland. More to the west in the mountains in Garrett County, more to the east because of strengthening. But there's going to be this zone where you get less than an inch and our map's going to reflect that. That includes the area near the AccuWeather corporate headquarters here in State College, PA where we're going to see a little bit of snow but probably less than an inch. But this increases Sunday morning. It's with us just briefly. It won't be here long, but for I-95 with the strengthening trough as we showed you, we're going to see some snow. So here's the GFS model and you can see pretty decent snow west. Look at Elkins, West Virginia, 7.8 inches of snow. Then there's this area with maybe an inch or less for some from Harrisburg up into Williamsport. But then you get into this area where there's one to three at least in the GFS model. Again I have concerns about locking Boston into a full inch of snow. We're going to hedge it toward a one to three inch forecast, but one inch more likely than anything more than that in Boston. Again we're going to see a higher confidence one to three in New York City and in Philadelphia than in Boston. Here's the NAM. The NAM brings us again a one to three inch snowfall for much of the area including about an inch in Baltimore, 1.2 in Philly, 1.3 in Trenton, only 0.6 in New York and a limited snow in to Boston, but two inches down in areas like Atlantic City. Now the European has had a pretty good track record with this particular storm, at least in its consistency. It's slowly ramping things up and this is a motivator in us introducing a little zone here with three or more inches. Look at this. The European brings again five to some spots even locally six inches of snow there into eastern parts of West Virginia. Here's the well agreed upon down sloping zone where we're just not going to see a whole lot and then overall as the storm begins to ramp up we're going to begin to see some three to sixes possibly in the European, 3.6 in Philly, 4.2 in Baltimore, 3.2 in Atlantic City, Cape May 2.5. So the message here is that again we have some areas with potential for three or more inches, 2.4 in New York, 0.7 in Boston. So again, just one more thing to keep in mind as this plays out here. I don't think we're going to see a whole lot west of, near the Susquehanna River, but we're going to see some pretty good snow in some areas. And a quick look at our actual forecast for this storm before I take a quick, quick look ahead to next week. I'm going to zoom in to the northeast here just to show more detail. One to three inches for the big cities, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, probably an inch in Boston hopefully, but we're looking at three or more inches a little farther south in this area of South Jersey, Central Delaware, and the eastern part of Maryland. That's where there's potential. A quick look at the lake effect snow. This is something that we're going to see time and time again with patterns like these. In some areas south of Erie, seeing quite a bit more than in the city itself, but six to twelve inches possible for some. I wanted to briefly look at this though. Cold has been holding, but look at this. We see a positive height anomaly. The atmosphere is going to be increasingly thick and warmer late next week.

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