There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, which is likely to become Tropical Storm Imelda this weekend. Part of that uncertainty is due to Major Hurricane Humberto, which is undergoing rapid intensification.

Meteorologists are closely tracking two named storms, Humberto and a developing system that could become Imelda, as their proximity is unusual and could affect each other's paths. The Bermuda high is steering both storms west-northwest, and several forecast models present different scenarios for Imelda's development and potential landfall.

If Imelda develops quickly, it may have more time to approach the U.S. coast before being influenced by Humberto. However, if its development is slower, Humberto could stall or redirect the system, potentially preventing landfall but still bringing significant impacts to coastal areas. Forecast models differ on the speed and strength of the system, with some predicting a strong storm making landfall and others suggesting a weaker storm that lingers offshore.

What Humberto’s rapid intensification means for ‘Imelda’

All right, so cutoff low is one of the searing factors, but you've got our big Bermuda high that's causing both of these storms to move off towards the west-northwest and northwest. So Umberto is the oddball out, right? We don't usually have two named storms this close together. Sometimes, this is not the first time this happened, but that's not the usual setup. And it's throwing a curveball here to what ultimately could happen. So let's walk through the different scenarios. A landfall scenario, or more direct impacts here to the U.S., would mean a quickly developing low pressure here with what would then be a melda, and then the movement of this is more quick. So that would allow it to have more time to get to the U.S. or make landfall before it starts to feel that pull from Umberto. But if it's slow, if it's slower than anticipated, or it's slower to develop, and Umberto comes in a little bit further off towards the west, that could help to stall this out, slow it down even more, and then kind of pull it closer to Umberto, which would maybe prevent a landfall, but still could be close enough to the coast where we still could have a lot of those direct impacts. So we're gonna have to watch that. The latest European wants to slow this down a little bit, but still showing a pretty formidable tropical storm hurricane coming in late Monday night into early Tuesday, just off the coast, or maybe sitting there for a day or two, and then pulling east. The GFS is a bit faster, which is why we have a pretty strong tropical storm, even hurricane making landfall there, say across portions of the Carolinas. And then the European AI model actually has a much slower solution, a weaker storm, and that would allow this to kind of meander and maybe even get pulled off towards the east. So we've got to see this because you can see all the different variables. Some of this want to stall it and kind of sit it here for a little bit. Some want to make a hard right.

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