A revenue-for-exports deal between the US government and two of the world's biggest chipmakers opens a new front in a trading regime turned upside down by Donald Trump. Bloomberg's Minmin Low and Tom Giles break down what we know so far.

Shanghai

A recent discussion has focused on former US President Donald Trump's suggestion that the US could allow the sale of scaled-back versions of advanced semiconductor chips, such as NVIDIA's Blackwell series, to China. The proposal involves the US government taking a percentage of the revenue from such sales. Currently, China only has access to older chips like NVIDIA's H20, which are considered less advanced and potentially less attractive due to security concerns and China's own technological progress.

The US has historically imposed strict export controls on advanced chip technology to China, citing national security risks. However, the potential for compromise—selling less advanced chips while retaining the most cutting-edge technology—reflects both the importance of the Chinese market to US chip makers and the growing capabilities of Chinese competitors. Both sides remain cautious about security vulnerabilities, and China is expected to continue investing in reducing its reliance on US technology.

What a Trump bid for cut of chip revenue means for China

I deal with Jensen, who's a great guy, and NVIDIA. The chip that we're talking about, the H20, it's an old chip. China already has it in a different form, different name, but they have it. Or they have a combination of two will make up for it and even then some. The Blackwell is super-duper advanced. I wouldn't make a deal with that, although it's possible I'd make a deal with a somewhat enhanced, in a negative way, Blackwell. In other words, take 30% to 50% off of it. But that's the latest and the greatest in the world. Nobody has it. They won't have it for five years. But the H20 is obsolete. You know, it's one of those things. But it still has a market. All right. So I'm in the president signaling there that maybe a scale back version of the Blackwell chip may be made available to China. But would China want it? We were discussing yesterday that they're a little bit unsure about some of the security vulnerabilities of the NVIDIA chips that they're allowed to access now. That's right. China can now only access the H20 chips, which is the older version, the Hopper series. And this is something that NVIDIA has said can't be scaled back even more. But the latest Blackwell chip, a scaled down version of that, might still be attractive to China. Now, the reason why China has not been so hot on the H20 chips is not only because it's not very advanced. You know, China can already produce chips that can achieve, you know, the same level of impact if it combines some of its existing chips together. And so that's one plus the security risk. So, of course, China will still want some sort of reassurance that those chips that NVIDIA is selling to China will not contain any backdoor to the U.S. government. But the advancement of the next line of chips, that could potentially be something that China would be interested to get its hands on. But, of course, as you said, the security risks still there. That's something that both sides will have to work out. And China will likely continue to pour resources to try to reduce its reliance on U.S. chips. Yeah, I want to get a little bit more on this. Let's bring in Tom Giles. Now, Tom, Min Min mentioned the security risks from the China point of view. But what are the security risks from the U.S. point of view? This sort of technology subject to export controls, is that now up for negotiation? Well, you know, for the right price, we can rethink just how concerned we are about the national security implications. But specifically with regard to chips, the U.S. government has historically put strict limits on what kinds of chips can be sold to China. And as Trump said in that clip, that if there are scaled back versions, if there are ones that are not the most advanced, he'd be willing to cut a deal with a company like NVIDIA, like the one that's already been announced with AMD and NVIDIA on another chip. He'd be willing to make some compromises, make some concessions, the argument being these are not the most advanced chips. The argument being that, well, these don't have the same national security implications that the most advanced chips do. What this is, is a recognition of the vital importance of the Chinese market to these chip companies. And it also is a recognition that Chinese customers are interested in getting NVIDIA AMD chips within reason. Remember that the Chinese chip makers are starting to catch up. And that gives U.S. chip makers a lot of fear and trepidation. They say, we need to stay in the market. We need to stay ahead of companies like SMIC, like Huawei. And we need to continue to sell our chips into the Chinese market. And they're willing to make concessions, 15 percent, in order to continue to do that.

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Breakdown