Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research head of U.S. economics, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss earnings season and the labor market and how it impacts the Fed's next move.

Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, has described the current US labor market as transitioning from a 'slow-hire, slow-fire' environment to a 'no-hire, slow-fire' phase. He points to several indicators, including declining housing construction, sluggish consumer spending, and weakening commercial real estate investment, as signs of broader economic softness outside the artificial intelligence sector.

Dutta also highlights that while layoffs remain low, hiring rates have fallen further, leading to increased underemployment and slack in the labor market. He suggests that headline unemployment rates may overstate the health of the jobs market, and that private domestic demand is currently below potential.

We're in a no hire, slow fire labor market, says Neil Dutta

Meantime, S&P Nasdaq coming off the best week since June, but can the momentum continue as we get set this week for CPI, PPI, retail sales, Umich on Friday. Joining us here at Post 9 this morning is Renaissance Macro Head of Economic Research, Neil Dutta. Neil, it's good to have you back. Welcome. Thank you. I've been reading some of your posts lately. They're usually accompanied by a comment saying, not great. What specifically is not great? Well, I mean, I think most things outside of the AI boom are not great. So I think housing is basically in a recession. You have units under construction continuing to decline. Builders continue to right size their construction relative to what they're selling. Consumers are sluggish. I mean, if you look at real incomes X transfers, I mean, it's basically down over the last few months. So consumers don't really have the wherewithal to go out and spend a lot of money. And the primary asset on their balance sheet is actually declining, right? Home prices are contracting nationally. So you know, for me, if the consumer is sluggish and housing is weakening, I mean, that's good enough to make a call. On a cut, you mean? Yeah. And I think, look, I mean, outside of AI, it's not like everything else in CapEx is doing well. I mean, structures investment is down, rig counts are down, commercial real estate construction is weak. The Fed released their senior loan officer survey last week, and CNI lending demand is down. So, you know, AI is kind of on an island unto itself. But everything else within the economy looks pretty sluggish. So is the committee behind the curve? I mean, I've been saying that, yes, I think that they're behind the curve. I mean, I think the labor markets are clearly fragile. I mean, these are not things that you typically see. You know, barely half the industry is adding. You have rising sort of underemployment. So I think there's a good case to make that, you know, just because the unemployment rate is at 4.1, 4.2 percent, that overstates the degree of health in the jobs market to a meaningful extent. I don't know. You watch the jobless claims numbers. There's nothing alarming in terms of pickup and layoffs. The Atlanta Fed is tracking two and a half percent GDP growth. That's a bit of coffee. It's still really early in the quarter. And a lot of that is a function of gyrations around trade and inventory. So when you look at private domestic demand, I think it's below potential. You mentioned initial jobless claims. You know, initial jobless claims have been low for quite some time. If you're—I mean, that's like credit spreads, right? I mean, if you're waiting for it to give you a signal, you've already waited too long. Well, usually jobless claims and credit spreads do give you signals on turns in the economy. I mean, they give you a signal after the bad things already happened. So to me, it's more episodic than anything else. I mean, the fact that initial claims have been low, as you rightly point out, that continuing claims continue to hit fresh highs every week, to me is a sign that there's slack building in the economy. So it's not really about the fact that firing rates are low. It's really more about the fact that hiring rates have declined even further. So I think we're kind of moving from a slow-hire, slow-fire labor market to a no-hire, slow-fire labor market. And that means that you're taking another step down in employment.

The National Guard has started to patrol the streets of Washington after U.S. President Donald Trump declared a crime emergency. He’s also ordered troops to clear out all homeless encampments by the end of the week.

Washington

National Guard starts patrolling Washington

Record-high temperatures across Europe are fanning wildfires across the continent. Experts say a warming climate and an increase in flammable vegetation from rural depopulation are major factors.

Madrid

Historic heat fuels fires across Europe

Hungary's PM Viktor Orbán said the EU attempts to set conditions for a meeting to which leaders of the EU were not invited. He also called for an EU-Russia summit.

Brussels

Ukraine Invasion

EU leaders rally behind Ukraine ahead of Trump-Putin talks

President Trump said Monday he expects that Russia and Ukraine will "land swap" certain territories as part of an eventual ceasefire deal. Mr. Trump is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.

Trump claims 'land swapping' between Russia, Ukraine will happen

Taylor Swift confirmed her 12th studio album, "The Life of a Showgirl," in a teaser for her upcoming appearance on her boyfriend Travis Kelce's podcast. Swift did not disclose the release date of the album.

Taylor Swift announces new album, 'The Life of a Showgirl'

U.S. President Donald Trump said that his planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday will be to "feel out" the leader as pressure mounts for Russia and Ukraine to make a peace deal.

Trump to meet with Putin in Alaska on Friday

A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to take place in Alaska, with European leaders notably excluded from the talks. Until Europe can defend itself, it's not likely to be invited to a great power dialogue, experts have told Euronews.

Alaska

Europe frozen out as U.S. and Russia prepare for Alaska talks

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that Kyiv and Moscow will both have to cede land to end the war in Ukraine and talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week will instantly show whether the Kremlin leader is willing to make a deal.

Trump says both sides in Ukraine war will need to cede territory

A prominent Al Jazeera journalist, who had previously been threatened by Israel, was killed along with four colleagues and another journalist in an Israeli airstrike in an attack condemned by journalists and rights groups.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Israeli strike kills Al Jazeera journalists in Gaza

At last one person is dead, dozens are injured and two people are unaccounted for after an explosion at the U.S. Steel Clairton plant in Pennsylvania on Monday.

Clairton

At least 1 dead, dozens injured in U.S. Steel plant explosion

President Donald Trump has placed the Metropolitan Police Department under federal control and announced he's activating the National Guard to combat crime in Washington, D.C.

Trump deploying National Guard to Washington, D.C.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is thanking European leaders for backing his push to join this week's Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, insisting an end to the war must be fair.

Trump and Putin set to meet on Friday without Zelenskyy

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Kyiv and its allies fear being sidelined and worry any deal could reward Moscow’s occupation of Ukrainian territory.

Kyiv

Ukraine fights for a seat at the table ahead of Trump-Putin summit

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is defending his decision to keep fighting in Gaza, despite protests at home and abroad. Debora Patta has the latest.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

Netanyahu defends plan to expand war in Gaza

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is thanking European leaders for backing his push to join this week's Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, insisting an end to the war must be fair. Willie James Inman has more from the White House.

Anchorage

Countdown begins to Trump-Putin meeting, without Zelenskyy

Violent weather hit several Midwest states over the weekend, with high winds being blamed for the death of at least one person in Nebraska and flash flooding prompting a state of emergency in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin.

Milwaukee

Milwaukee inundated with floodwaters, one dead in Nebraska

Thirty-seven major wildfires are currently burning across nine states in the western United States. Firefighters have made significant progress on the Canyon Fire in California, achieving 62% containment and allowing over 4,000 residents to return home, with minimal property loss reported.

Major fires continue to burn across western U.S.

President Donald Trump's envoy met with the Qatari prime minister on Saturday in Spain to discuss possible deals to end the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, as Israel's military plans to expand into Gaza City. Meanwhile, families of Israeli hostages and Palestinians alike are pleading for peace.

Families of Israeli hostages, Palestinians plead for ceasefire

Renewed anti-government protests have taken place in Israel, where relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages held by Hamas demanded their release and an end to the brutal war Israel has been waging in Gaza.

Israeli anti-government protesters take to the streets in Tel Aviv

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Kyiv "values and fully supports" a joint statement by European leaders that welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to try to end the war, while emphasizing the need to pressure Russia and provide security guarantees for Kyiv.

Europe stresses need to protect Ukraine ahead of Trump-Putin meet

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has firmly rejected Russia’s proposal requiring land concessions to end the war. Ukrainian and European officials have submitted a counterproposal to Washington.

Ukraine, Europe counter Russian ceasefire proposal ahead of US talks

There have been more protests, and counter protests, in several British towns and cities, outside of hotels used to accommodate asylum seekers. Some far-right protesters called for one of the hotels to stop housing migrants.

Bournemouth

UK: Anti-immigration & anti-racism protesters face off

A man who opened fire on the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention headquarters in Atlanta, firing into the complex from a pharmacy and killing a police officer, blamed the COVID-19 vaccine for making him depressed and suicidal, according to reports.

Atlanta

Vaccine conspiracy could be behind Atlanta shooting

The Gifford Fire burning through the rugged backcountry of California's Central Coast is now the state's largest wildfire of the year. It has reached so-called "mega-fire" status and is one of 38 large fires burning across nine states.

San Luis Obispo

Largest California wildfire of 2025 reaches "mega fire" status

President Trump is preparing to take another swing at a deal with President Putin during a high-stakes summit next Friday in Anchorage, Alaska. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the country will never give up land, even if it means an end to the war.

Trump: Ukraine must cede land for ceasefire; Zelenskyy refuses

The United Nations Security Council is set to hold a rare Sunday meeting to discuss Israel's plan to intensify its 22-month war with Hamas by taking control of Gaza City. CBS News' Debora Patta reports on the conflict and the mounting humanitarian crisis.

Netanyahu's plan to occupy Gaza comes under fire

At least 200 protesters have been arrested at a rally showing solidarity for Palestinians in Gaza, outside the Parliament in London. Crowds are also demonstrating against a ban on the Palestine Action group, after it was designated as a terrorist organisation.

Breakdown