The National Hurricane Center is watching a cluster of showers and storms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance is expected to move northwest into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. If this area of low pressure can stay over water, then tropical development is possible, but chances are low.

Campeche

The National Hurricane Center is observing a cluster of showers and storms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, which is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche. Current forecasts indicate only a 10 to 20 percent chance of tropical development, with atmospheric conditions such as wind shear and Saharan dust limiting the potential for storm formation. 

Despite the low probability of a named tropical system, the disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall in Central America and Mexico. Meteorologists emphasize that significant rain can occur even without a named storm, and the region should prepare for wet conditions.

Watching southern Gulf for potential tropical development

as we have a little something circled on here, an area to watch in the Bay of Campeche, also an invest in the East pack. This is the one though that is probably grabbing the most people's attention. Around this time of year, we have something called the Central American Gyre and it's essentially an area of circulation, broad circulation and you get thunderstorms to bubble up and cause some storms. Now, if you look at the forecast from the CPC for the next couple of weeks, doesn't show a lot of oomph in this area in the next couple of weeks. So with that said, development right now, 10 to 20%, not looking like it's gonna do a whole lot of anything, but because of all the moisture and the thunderstorms that we have here in Central America and Mexico, we are going to get a lot of rain. So it also just proves a point that you don't need a name system or anything in order to get a lot of rain. As you can see, there is some shear in this vicinity, bigger shear as you look over Hispaniola and Cuba, and as we look back in the Atlantic, tons of shear for us here throughout the Atlantic basin. So not a lot of worries, not to mention Saharan dust, which you can see coming all the way over here into the Bahamas, but really thick Saharan dust, also helping keep things at bay for us for the time being. We already had Andrea, but if you blinked, you missed it. It was really quick. It was out in the Atlantic. Next storm will be named Barry and you can go up and down the list to see all the names. And of course we have a supplemental list if we do happen to get through this list. Let's hope we don't.

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