CNBC's Emily Wilkins joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the uphill battle President Donald Trump's mega bill faces to get Senate approval.

Washington

President Donald Trump's large legislative bill has encountered a major obstacle in the Senate after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that several key provisions, particularly those related to Medicaid, could not be included as currently written. These provisions, including caps on provider taxes and restrictions on Medicaid access for non-citizens, were expected to reduce federal spending by an estimated $300 billion.

The removal of these measures has led to calls from some Republican senators to overrule or dismiss the parliamentarian, though Senate leadership is cautious about setting such a precedent. Lawmakers are now considering adjustments to the bill in hopes of aligning with Senate rules, but the changes are expected to delay progress and complicate the bill's passage.

Trump's mega bill hits roadblock

Welcome back. That Fourth of July deadline to pass the current version of President Trump's mega bill is now looking a bit less likely. Let's get to Emily Wilkins with the details on what happened this morning, Emily. Hey, Kelly. Well, yeah, the Trump mega bill has hit a major hurdle that could increase the cost of the bill and ultimately complicate its passage. Now, remember, this bill, it's going through that special process where it only needs Republican support to pass, but that means it's restricted in other ways. And the Senate parliamentarian, think of her kind of like the umpire of the Senate, ruled that major portions of the bill on Medicaid cannot be included as they're currently written. Now, the eliminated items include a cap on the tax that states levy on health care providers, the provider tax that's then reimbursed by the federal government. And she also moved out provisions limiting how immigrants who are not U.S. citizens can access Medicaid, among other provisions. Now, all of those measures taken together were supposed to cut federal spending and decrease the overall cost of the bill by 300 billion, according to a rough estimate this morning from the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget. Some Republican lawmakers are now calling for the Senate to overrule or even get rid of the parliamentarian, including Senator Tommy Tuberville, who tweeted that the parliamentarian was woke and added that the Senate parliamentarian should be fired ASAP. Senator Ron Johnson told me during a CNBC CEO council event that the changes will complicate the bill's passage. I think the Senate parliamentarian threw a hand grenade into the process by saying that apparently you can change programs to increase spending, but now I guess you can't change programs to decrease spending. Now, I'm told that senators do plan to try some tweaks on these provisions to see if they can get them to fall in line with the rules and still maybe get some savings from them from this bill. But all of that takes time, and right now we are eight days away from that July 4th deadline that Trump set with a lot left to go. Kelly? So again, what are the exact provisions that are getting kicked out here? So as they are written, and mind you, they might come back with slight tweaks to them. These are the provider tax credits, so the taxes that states will put on health care providers. The Senate bill caps them at 3.5 percent. Parliamentarians said that was more of a policy change than a budget change. And then there are a number of others that would really limit, or in some cases just outright ban, immigrants who are not U.S. citizens from accessing Medicaid and similar benefits. And there's nine provisions total. That kind of covers the main gist that we're seeing here. But this is really leading a lot of senators to try and go back to the drawing board, seeing if they can rewrite them. And then, of course, some calls to just override the parliamentarian altogether. Senate Majority Leader John Thune at this point says that he does not want to do that. He realizes if he does that now, that means when Democrats have full control of D.C., they could do the same thing. So lots of back and forth and lots of complicating factors here. Is there a precedent for overriding the parliamentarian? There is. I mean, if you go back a number of decades, there are even cases where the Senate has removed the parliamentarian. But, again, this is all about precedent setting. Republicans are aware that anything that they do now sets a precedent, so that the next time that Democrats are in complete control of the House, Senate and White House, Democrats could then say, well, it happened before. We'll just go ahead and do it again. And I think Republicans are cognizant that, to a certain extent, they need to have those guardrails in place. All right. We'll see what happens next. Emily, thanks very much, Emily Wilkins.

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Kyiv

Ukraine Invasion

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Jerusalem

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Gilimanuk

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Manhattan

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Madrid

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Tehran

Iran Strikes

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Lhasa

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