Name: Tesla analysts brace for a decline in vehicle sales
Uploaded: 2025-12-30T14:10:49.129Z
Duration: 2 min 4 s
Description: Tesla Inc. published a compilation of analyst estimates for vehicle deliveries to its website that on average shows expectations for the company to deliver 15% fewer cars in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.

Tesla Inc. published a compilation of analyst estimates for vehicle deliveries to its website that on average shows expectations for the company to deliver 15% fewer cars in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.

Texas

Tesla's fourth quarter vehicle sales are projected to fall short of both company and Bloomberg consensus estimates, with a shortfall of about 22,000 vehicles. Analysts have also revised downward their expectations for Tesla's sales in 2025 and 2026, reflecting a slowdown from the company's previous rapid growth.

Despite ongoing optimism about Tesla's advancements in self-driving technology and the potential for robo taxis, this has not led to higher sales projections. The conflicting outlook suggests that while technological optimism remains high, it has yet to impact demand or sales expectations.

Tesla analysts brace for a decline in vehicle sales

Can you lay out how much of a disappointment some of these projections really are for Tesla. Yeah I think just starting off with the fourth quarter you have this company compiled consensus as they call it. You know round numbers looking around 423000 vehicles. That's a pretty substantial difference between you know what what Bloomberg Bloomberg's average estimates are. That's around 445000. So it's about a 22000 vehicle shortfall. I think you know going forward what's interesting is also not a whole lot of optimism about the outlook for 2026. And we've seen consensus come down for next year pretty substantially as well over the last couple of years where you know the expectations for the company was you know on this time frame to be selling you know three three and a half million vehicles. And we're now sort of seeing you know those estimates come down to you know yes higher than what we will probably end up seeing for 2025 but not substantially so. And sort of a continued rut for this company that was once growing really like gangbusters year after year. Craig does it matter. Honestly does it matter if you're a shareholder in Tesla. Does this matter. You know lately the answer to that has been no. And I think what's really fascinating here is that you seem to have this you know coalescing consensus around two ideas that seem to be very much in conflict with one another. On one hand an expectation that this company is on the verge of you know quote unquote solving self-driving and you know rendering its vehicles capable of turning into robo taxis. And yet on the other hand not a substantial change in the sort of sales outlook for this company. You would think that if there's so much optimism about this this company's autonomy prospects that you would see that you know sort of translate into oh my gosh demand is going to shoot up. And yet we're not seeing those move in unison with one another.

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