S&P Global has downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+, citing heightened political uncertainty and fiscal challenges. The surprise move comes as the country grapples with ongoing political turmoil.

Paris

S&P Global has downgraded France's credit rating to A-plus from AA-minus, citing policy uncertainty and unresolved government finances as key concerns. This marks the third downgrade for France this year, with S&P moving up its review ahead of schedule due to the severity of the situation.

The downgrade follows recent political instability, including two narrowly survived no-confidence votes and the suspension of pension reform. S&P projects France's deficit to remain above government targets and public debt to reach 121 percent of GDP by 2028, raising concerns about the country's long-term fiscal trajectory.

S&P downgrades France as political uncertainty takes its toll

S&P Global has made a surprise downgrade to France's rating to A-plus from A-A-minus. The Credit Ratings Agency cited policy uncertainty as a key drag on the wider French economy, noting that while the draft budget for 2026 has been submitted to Parliament, issues around government finances are unresolved. Ultimately, not a huge surprise there, Charlotte. The announcement from S&P was a little bit surprising, but what they're highlighting is very much in line with what we've heard from other credit rating agencies, isn't it? Yes, it is a third downgrade this year for France. It is a surprise move by S&P because their review wasn't expected until November, so they moved faster there. But look, again, we know the question of the public finances and the concerns around this and the political instability and S&P very much highlighting this. France has experienced its most severe political instability since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958, so, you know, they're making it very clear there, uncertainty around public finances. And it's interesting because, again, just last week, the government survived two no-confidence votes. One was very close. Only about 18 votes survived that. And they survived that, Sébastien Lagarde, the new prime minister, because – thanks to the support of the socialists. And that was because he announced the suspension of the pension reform. And we saw a relief on the market because of that, saying, OK, this government is not going to be toppled. But it did raise questions, then, what happens with the public finances and trying to tackle the deficit that we'll be sending at 5.4 percent this year. And that was a question – so the short-term relief that we saw on the market, et cetera, does raise these long-term questions. And that's when this downgrade comes into play. And that's very much what they're highlighting, S&P, to explain the decision there. And they actually see the deficit to reach 5.3 percent next year, while the government's targeting something between 4.7 and 5 percent. So a big difference there, as well. And they say long-term, there's some real questions of whether debt might land – they see the debt at 121 percent in 2028, according to S&P. So the trajectory is very much not positive at all there. So there is a question – warning shot there for the new government, because the discussions around the budget will be starting today in the National Assembly. So at least these discussions are happening, because there is still a government. And there are some questions on, you know, the suspension of pension reform, the cost that it means. We know they announced it will be 400 million in 2026, 1.8 billion in 2027 that will be – will have to be compensated, the government said. So we might see new tax hikes. So the question is, what these tax hikes mean for the economy growth. So we're back to all these conversations. So yes, short-term, there was some relief, because the government survived. But that's thanks to the pension reform being suspended. And that raises some questions. Therefore, this downgrade, not surprising to – surprising in terms of date, not surprising in terms of content and message. Yes. In the medium and long term, the same questions remain, ultimately. Charlotte, thank you. A busy week, no doubt.

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