Iran is rapidly exporting oil, a sign of the unusual logistical steps that Tehran is undertaking as the U.S. mulls joining Israel in bombing the Persian Gulf state.

Tehran

Iran is rapidly exporting oil and taking steps to safeguard its shipping operations as regional tensions escalate. Satellite data shows increased oil loading onto tankers, suggesting that Iran is moving oil from domestic reserves to international markets rather than ramping up production. Shipping companies are exercising caution, but have not yet significantly rerouted vessels, despite concerns about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has also cleared anchorage areas around key export terminals and dispersed its tankers, a move seen as a precaution to reduce the risk of concentrated targets. These actions are viewed as prudent measures to maintain revenue and supply continuity amid uncertainty.

Iran races to get its oil out into the world

How much is Iran cushioning itself from whatever any outside actors want to do? I think it's just a pretty sensible step. There's a lot going on. Even accidentally something could happen or oil could become part of the kind of issue. So moving as much oil as you can as quickly as you can is a pretty sensible thing to do. So we've looked at the tops of the satellites and you can see from the shadows that they're kind of filling up at the same time as loads of oil is getting loaded onto tankers, which must mean that some is coming out of the kind of domestic system and going to the export market. It's very unlikely to be a ramp up in production over the short term like that. It's almost certainly kind of being taken from the domestic market, put into the international market, keeping revenues going and maintaining kind of supply. Alaric, we asked this question in yesterday's show as well, and this might be a slightly offbeat one, so bear with me. There's a question here that if the Strait of Hormuz gets closed or already a lot of shippers and just like Seychelles, for example, Maersk, Eirat, they're already rerouting in preparation for that possibility. That's on top of already rerouting around the Red Sea as well. Is there a question here of running out of fuel, running out of labour that enough rerouting actually pressures the end commodity price the way it's pressuring shipping rates right now? I think if you look at the kind of very specific things they've said, I don't think they are rerouting. I think they are very, very cautious. But actually rerouting, no, I would say they're not doing that. But if you get a more serious situation, then you can certainly have pressure on fuel prices. You don't need to close the Strait of Hormuz for that to become a much bigger issue. For example, really significant harassment of shipping, people are going to get worried, traders are going to become more anxious and so on. Have we seen what Iran is doing currently before? Is this a regular occurrence? Well, we did see, I don't know about the build-up of storage at Kargh at the same time as other ramping exports, but we've also observed that they've cleared out the anchorage areas, like there's a big ocean area around Kargh Island, the big export terminal, and they keep lots of tankers there and they come and go and that's all normal. Why are they doing that? Is that a safety story or is that a... I think it's the same thing. It's a prudent step. If you get the tankers out of one area, then they become completely, you know, untargetable. Right, so they're moving targets of opportunity. Were they to strike other people's shipping, they are moving their shipping into a more dispersed... I think it's more that they're just moving their own shipping out of the way. I don't think that they're, you know, this is their area, nobody's going to be targeting them, they're just moving... OK, I'll come back to it. Why would you do that? If you're not worried about reprisals, why would you move your shipping? I can understand why you would not want to have, if you're loading lots of crude, you don't want to have lots of ships in the same place because it's an inherently dangerous thing to do. Why are they doing that? I'm trying to understand the signal that I should be getting from this. I think that they are prudently moving their ships out of the way so that they're not all in one place, so that if oil came into play as an issue, their tankers wouldn't be targeted.

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