Robin Mills, the CEO of Qamar Energy, joins Becky Anderson to discuss the economic impact of the weekend attacks on Iran.

The United States has joined Israel in striking nuclear targets in Iran. It follows an escalating broader conflict in the region including the ongoing Gaza war.

Iran Strikes

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that the recent US attack on Iran has heightened an already uncertain global economic environment, posing risks to the growth prospects of major economies. The IMF previously estimated a significant risk of recession in the US, citing factors such as tariffs and trade policy changes.

Robin Mills, CEO of Qamar Energy, noted that while oil prices have risen, they remain below dangerous levels. However, he emphasized two main risks: a further shock to economic confidence and the potential for serious disruptions to energy flows, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is affected. Mills explained that even partial disruptions in this critical shipping route could significantly reduce oil and gas supplies, impacting global markets.

IMF says the U.S. attack on Iran amplifies ‘economic uncertainty’

IMF chief told Bloomberg TV that the weekend's attack has amplified an already highly uncertain economic environment that is threatening to hit growth prospects of the world's largest economies. In April, the IMF forecast the US had a 40% risk of recession this year following Donald Trump's tariff announcements, his flip-flops on trade to a degree. I'm joined now by Robin Mills, who is CEO of energy consultancy firm Comma Energy. With the IMF warning, there are economic risks of this conflict, of course. What do you see as the sort of biggest priority areas at this point? Well, yeah, look, Becky, I mean, there's been a jump in oil prices, but not a huge one. I mean, not in dangerous territory yet. But I see, you know, two dangers. The first is just this is another shock to confidence, along with all the tariffs and trade wars and so on, and a sense of a more uncertain and more dangerous world. And the second one also, obviously, is if there is a serious interruption of energy flows, oil and gas flows out of the Gulf, and oil prices go to $100 a barrel plus. Well, those concerns are high around the possibility of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A significant chunk of the world's energy, oil and gas, passes through there. There have been threats. The Iranian parliament has passed a motion to close the Strait. So, look, I think it's important that we work out, if they talk about the closure of the Strait, what does it mean? How do they affect that? And then, you know, just explain what the real impact would be. So, when they say closure, right, this is not the Suez Canal, it's not a few hundred metres wide, right? It's a way of, you know, 20 kilometres or so at the narrowest point. So, when we say closure, we're really talking about attacks on shipping, mines, drones, missiles, something that deters shipping from going through. And that doesn't mean that every ship that tries to sail will get sunk. It's enough to kind of damage some ships and scare people and deter passage that way, as we've seen in the Red Sea over the past few months. But if that does happen, of course, would you see a complete loss of shipping through the Hormuz? Probably not. Would you see a major reduction of oil and gas flows and other commodities? Yes, that's certainly a very serious prospect.

Russia pummeled Kyiv with the largest drone attack of the war, injuring at least 23 people and damaging buildings across the capital only hours after U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Russia's Vladimir Putin, officials said.

Kyiv

Ukraine Invasion

Russia hits Kyiv with largest drone attack after Trump-Putin call

U.S. President Donald Trump marked the passage of the new spending bill, which includes changes to food assistance, student loan programs, and clean energy credits. Robert Costa joins "CBS Mornings" to break down what's in the legislation.

Washington

Trump set to sign "big, beautiful bill"

More than 80 Palestinians were killed in Gaza on Thursday (July 3), according to health officials, as Israel intensified its strikes, hitting a school-turned-displacement facility. CNN’s Paula Hancocks looks at the damage and humanitarian toll.

Jerusalem

More than 80 people killed in Gaza in one day

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv will do "anything" to advance EU accession talks. Zelenskyy spoke alongside Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, President of the European Council António Costa and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

Ukraine will do 'anything' to advance EU accession talks: Zelenskyy

President Donald Trump said Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on imports to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals.

Global Tariffs

Trump: Letters telling countries their tariff rate going out Friday

Indonesian rescuers on Thursday (July 3) temporarily halted a search for 30 people still missing after a ferry carrying 65 people sank near the island of Bali with the loss of six lives, the national search and rescue agency said.

Gilimanuk

Indonesia suspends search for 30 missing after ferry sinks near Bali

After marathon debate sessions in the Senate and House, President Donald Trump’s budget bill passed in the House. Republicans secured the biggest win of Trump’s presidency.

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Florida says the first group of migrant detainees have arrived at the new immigration detention center known as "Alligator Alcatraz." CBS News correspondent Shanelle Kaul has more.

Ochopee

First group of detainees arrive at "Alligator Alcatraz," Florida says

U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday (July 3) that he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and that he plans to hold a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. CBS News White House reporter Willie James Inman has more.

Trump speaks with Putin, plans call with Zelenskyy

CNN’s Priscilla Alvarez reports on a lawsuit from lawyers for Kilmar Abrego Garcia alleging he suffered “torture and mistreatment” after he was wrongfully deported and held in El Salvador’s notorious mega prison.

Tecoluca

Kilmar Abrego Garcia claims he was tortured in El Salvadoran prison

The Kremlin welcomed the development, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov claiming it proves Western arsenals are being depleted and predicting that less aid will hasten the end of the conflict.

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Two contractors employed by UG Solutions spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity as they were revealing their employers’ internal operations.

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Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries spoke for hours on the House floor about potential impacts of President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" that Republicans are looking to pass before July 4. Following debate, the House is set for a final vote on the massive budget bill.

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CBS News political contributor Caroline Polisi joins "CBS Mornings" to break down the jury's verdict in Sean "Diddy" Combs' federal trial and the judge's decision to deny bail for the music mogul ahead of his sentencing.

Manhattan

Sean "Diddy" Combs denied bail after split verdict

Liverpool soccer player Diogo Jota has died aged 28, just weeks after marrying his childhood sweetheart. The footballer passed away in a car crash in northern Spain.

Madrid

Liverpool soccer player dies in car crash 10 days after wedding

The Pentagon said that U.S. strikes 10 days ago had degraded Iran's nuclear program by up to two years, suggesting the U.S. military operation likely achieved its goals despite a far more cautious initial assessment that leaked to the public.

Tehran

Iran nuclear program degraded by up to two years: Pentagon

Days before his 90th birthday, the Dalai Lama announced the Gaden Phodrang Trust, a non-profit he founded, will have the sole authority to recognize his future reincarnation, but China insists it will choose the successor of the Tibetan spiritual leader.

Lhasa

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The U.S. Congress inched towards approving President Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, despite attempts by Democrats to stop it. The bill is Trump’s signature legislation which includes massive spending increases on the military and immigration enforcement while slashing social programs.

Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill nears approval

Sean (Diddy) Combs was found guilty on prostitution-related charges, but was acquitted on more serious charges of racketeering and sex trafficking giving him a maximum sentence of 20 years. But the courtroom victory was subdued following a judge’s ruling to deny him bail.

New York

Diddy denied bail, avoids life in prison

President Trump says Israel has agreed to a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, but it remains unclear if Hamas will accept the terms. CBS News senior foreign correspondent Debora Patta has more.

Trump says Israel has agreed to Gaza ceasefire conditions

Bryan Kohberger changed his plea to guilty Wednesday for the 2022 murders of four University of Idaho students. CBS News national correspondent Carter Evans has more on the case.

Boise

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The Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down a state abortion law that was adopted in 1849 in a 4-3 landmark decision. CBS News' Shanelle Kaul reports.

Madison

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Macron and Putin held regular discussions around the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Macron visiting Putin in Russia in February 2022, but dialogue eventually stalled.

Paris

Macron held 'substantial' phone call with Putin

President Trump toured “Alligator Alcatraz,” a migrant detention center he teamed up with Ron DeSantis to build in the Everglades.

Everglades

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The U.S. Senate passed the Republicans' reconciliation bill on Tuesday (July 1) after more than 24 hours of marathon voting on amendments. Vice President JD Vance cast the tie-breaking vote.

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The new order does not rescind existing sanctions on ousted longtime President Bashar al-Assad, his top aides, officials and family members who are accused of having committed war crimes and human rights violations against Syrian civilians.

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Former criminology graduate student Bryan Kohberger has agreed to plead guilty to killing four Idaho college students in 2022, a move that would spare him the death penalty under a deal with prosecutors, ABC News reported on Monday (June 30).

Moscow

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Thailand's Constitutional Court on Tuesday suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from duty pending a case seeking her dismissal, adding to mounting pressure on a government fighting for survival on multiple fronts.

Bangkok

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Israeli strikes killed at least 60 people across Gaza on June 30 in some of the heaviest attacks in weeks as Israeli officials were due in Washington for a new ceasefire push by U.S. President Donald Trump.

IMF says the U.S. attack on Iran amplifies ‘economic uncertainty’

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Iran Strikes