Stocks closed sharply higher after a report on inflation showed easing. Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, joined Cheddar News to break down Thursday's trading session and what lies ahead.

Wall Street

Dow Jumps after positive inflation data

So join me. Now, for more on today's market action, the best day that we sing for stocks. And several years with the NASDAQ up 7.4% is Chance the new, get a cheap investment officer at Oxbow advisors a chance. Thanks for coming on the show. So, I pretty pretty good games on the back of its inflation report. What's your take? Hi, Kristin. Yeah. The nice relief rally for anybody who owns stocks out there and even long-term bonds with long-term treasury yields having come down quite a bit. But from our view, despite this inflation number coming in lower than expected. It doesn't really change our Outlook. The FED still hiking rates. Are there still tightening policy which going to make it tough for growth are really accelerate here and just to think back to previous bear markets in the.com bubble. That was a three-year-long bear Market. There were 10 separate days were the nasdaq-100 went up by 7% or more in a single day and it didn't stop things from getting ready to go down. And similarly, in March 2020 on March 13th, the NASDAQ was up 9% that day and yet rolled over and then it up taking a bit longer before you made that final low. So considering that were still seeing the FED raise rates, there's no history of a bear Market bottoming. While rates are still being increased, so it's a nice relief, but we think it still still a tough environment. That's interesting. Janssen based on that, comment that you said, there's no history of the stock market, bottom me, while rates are rising. I you think that it will take until the FED stops. Its higher rate policy stops raising rates for the market. Actually turn around. Usually, it's not even the pause. It's actually them starting to cut rates and several times, cutting rates. Before you typically see a bottom, I think this is just been such a unique atmosphere because they've had to raise rates so far just to try to catch up to where inflation is today and they're still trying to get there. The core pce inflation number is still at 5% and chairman Powell has said that he'd like to see the FED funds rate, get above that level. So he's probably hoping that that PC number will start coming back down to 4% or below. And then you can start to see him pause. But from our perspective, we just think this is going to take longer to play out. And the first half of next year, probably going to be a difficult environment for economic growth. And for socks, wait, for Santa and I was Jack for the year. Percent off. Today, I'm again, the best that we've seen in years. Should investors stay? The course, if you think a new bottom is on the way and you think investors should sell at these level. We trimmed a little bit of our stock portfolios today just on some of our positions that we weren't feeling as strongly as strong a conviction about just given that, it's not often you see a 7 or 10% pop and some of your shares, I think. If you're younger investors, you continue to just dollar cost averaging to your portfolios. If you're in your twenties or thirties and just consider the the long game that you're not going to be needing those savings for decades. But if you're a retiree, we think it still pays to be patient, keeps him acquitted in your portfolios and stay somewhat defensively position because we think this will continue to be a choppy environment for a while longer. About the crypto Market chance. I'm not sure whether or not your company invest in cryptocurrency, but I think the fears with the collapse of ft x to the other crypto entities that we've seen over the past few years is causing some concern about contagion and cryptocurrency trading like that. Right there at they are obviously more risky than risk assets like stocks but is there any concern that the contained in might move Beyond at TX? We don't own our our recommend, any cryptocurrencies for our clients but just broadly, we can say that. What evidence has shown is that when you're in a tightening monetary environment, when central banks are raising rates and especially when the US dollar is appreciating in value relative to other currencies, like it has been throughout this year. It's a very difficult environment for cryptocurrencies to do well, and we think that environment is going to continue for several more quarters at least. So, it wouldn't surprise us if that led to some more weakness and difficulty in the crypto Market Beyond even what we just saw it happen at ft x. Yeah, I know, I think that contagion fear is real. Look, I want to ask you about in addition to inflation earnings reports that we continue to see. Come in growth, still I technically on paste, I'll be a pretty meager growth for the third quarter. What kind of state is Corporate America in and should Americans be concerned about potentially being laid off, and he's next six to 12. On the question of layoffs, it seems like it's a, it's a bit different than past recessionary environment, where you might see the unemployment rate going up in the past, that might be more blue-collar type rolls in manufacturing or Transportation or and housing that you might see that sort of an issue during construction. But right now, it actually seems more like service related, jobs management position, especially in Tech, that's where you're seeing more of the layoffs were. There was just too much hiring that occurred during the pandemic when certain industries thought they were going to see a boom in demand and now it's rolled over so we think that's made this environment a little bit more difficult to forecast where the unemployment rate is headed. So it kind of depends if you're seeing or you're working an industry where you're seeing a lot of signs up looking for new hires, you're probably okay for a while. But obviously, we're seeing more and more announcements from Tech businesses that are cutting on average are seeing ten to fifteen percent of their employee base. But I know he had a chance to they need us. Still think we're in a bear Market, despite today's I really Frawley as well. Call it right? So concerns that there could be more selling ahead. Is there any real indication that inflation can continue to come down? How confident are you that higher prices? I can cool in the future. We think that inflation can come down and we'll come down to the quarters to come. The question is, is that coming because of what the fed and other central banks have done to innocent create a recession that we expect the table next year and that can actually bring down inflation but it creates different problems because gross will have turned negative on a real basis. And then the other question is, where does inflation start to settle out? Or we noticed today that the sticky components of the inflation metric. So the indicators that don't change that much from month to month, still increased at an annualized rate of 5 1/2 per cent before the pandemic that sticky component was never higher than 3%. So you need to see some of those metric. Start to come back down before you start to think that we're back in that rain is that we were in throughout the 2010s by chance. We're going to leave it there. I think you so much for coming on the show again and very strong day for stocks are relieved down here on walls. What the NASDAQ up 7.4% that is Chance. Manukyan, Chief investment officer Oxbow advisors

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Memphis

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