Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore senior media analyst, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the analyst's review of the 2025 box office and what to expect next year.

The domestic box office is projected to reach close to $9 billion by the end of the year, according to ComScore data, marking an improvement over the previous year but still trailing the pre-pandemic benchmark of $11 billion. Major releases such as 'Avatar: Fire and Ash,' 'The Housemaid,' and 'David' have contributed to a strong holiday period, with the final week of the year considered pivotal for overall performance.

Looking ahead, industry analysts anticipate 2025 could be the biggest year for theaters since the pandemic, citing a lineup of high-profile releases including new films from Steven Spielberg and Tom Cruise, as well as major franchises like 'Avengers,' 'Toy Story,' and 'Minions.' The continued commitment of studios to theatrical releases, alongside the communal experience of moviegoing, are seen as key factors in driving audience attendance despite ongoing competition from streaming platforms.

Critics review 2025 box office

Paul, great to talk to you today. We still didn't hit the pre-pandemic levels of movie going, but we did better than last year. Set the scene for me. Yeah, so that's, you set it up perfectly. It's been a very tumultuous year at the box office, but nonetheless, right now, according to our ComScore data, we're at $8.5 billion domestically. This final week of the year is very pivotal. Obviously, Avatar, Fire and Ash now is at over $483 million globally. So we're looking at a really strong holiday period with Avatar, with The Housemaid, with the movie David. But then we have on Christmas day, we had Marty Supreme go into wide release, Song Sung Blue opened, and Anaconda. So we really wanna see this final week of the year perform quite well. In the past, historically, between the eight days, between Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve, we can generate in the domestic box office alone in the 480 to 500 million range. So we might get to 9 billion, we're right on the cusp, but next year is gonna be huge. I'm looking at a year that could be the biggest since the pandemic. And in the pre-pandemic era, we would be at around $11 billion in the domestic box office. This year we'll be at close to 9 billion. Why do you think next year's gonna do so well in the movies? When it looks like, are people going to the movies? Yeah. Are they doing it at the same rate? No. That's true. But given the options for entertainment on the small screen, I think the fact that you have studios committed to putting movies in theaters. I mean, for example, just recently, the new Steven Spielberg movie, Disclosure Day, is announced for next year. The new Tom Cruise movie, Digger, is opening in October of next year. Then you've got Avengers Doomsday, Toy Story 5, Minions 3, Super Mario Galaxy. I mean, the list goes on and on. So it's really about the movies. It's about the movies being released in theaters. And that's what drives people to go to the big screen, to go to their local cinema. It's those big movies. The marketing is a big part of that. So I think we're looking at a really tremendous year next year. Of course, there's challenges for theatrical, but I think given the amount of competition out there in the marketplace, the fact that we have so many big movies on the way and the PG movies and horror movies have been big drivers this year with a Minecraft movie, Lilo and Stitch doing well, Weapons, Sinners, of course, so Avatar right now. And what about Marty Supreme, which Marty Supreme was only in, what, a handful of theaters. And you're talking about marketing. Here you have the star, Timothee Chalamet, going in person and surprising audiences with an in-person greeting. Yeah. How important is the star involvement in getting these films to do well at the box office? You know, that's a great question. I think it's huge. And the only way you can do that in person is in a movie theater. And Marty Supreme in just six theaters this past weekend did huge business. Now it's in wide release. I think it's gonna be one of the big movies heading into the end of the year. And it is a critical, you know, a darling, if you will. The reviews have been great. And Chalamet can get an Oscar for this role. You know what people are talking about there, Paul. They're talking about Kevin O'Leary. There you go. I mean, look. He's in that movie and he plays himself, shall we say. Essentially, yes. Yeah, Paul, I've got a quick question. Which are you more excited about? Are you more excited about what's happening on the streaming releases or what's happening in the movie theaters? And what happens to a company like Paramount if it's bought by Netflix and then it sits on both sides and says, I don't know where I want things to happen, more in the movie theater or on streaming? Well, that's the multi-billion dollar question, isn't it? That's why I'm asking it. I think that it's both. I mean, look, I love watching, for example, Welcome to Derry, which is on HBO Max. A great series, right? But then I also love, and I think people feel this way, going out to the movie theater. So there's movies like Marnie Supreme that'll drive people to the theater, Avatar, Fire and Ash. I think when those companies, when you have streamers owning big studios, they have to understand that it's a combination of both. Having people go to the movie theater is really key. And remember too, that communal experience drives that social media conversation. And Gen Z moviegoers are really enjoying going out to the movies. So I think we all like to have various types of entertainment, whether you find it on the big screen, the small screen, but no question, the movie theater, I think in 26, we're gonna see a huge year. Again, it's all based on the product, on the movies being released in theaters.

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