In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at the potential for a snowstorm in the Northeast late next week.

Northeastern United States

Forecasters are monitoring the potential for snowstorms in the Northeastern United States between January 12th and 18th. Two main opportunities for snow have been identified: one late in the week and another over the weekend, both linked to expected dips in the jet stream and surges of cold air.

However, major weather models disagree on the likelihood and track of these storms. The European model predicts the storms will move out to sea, resulting in little to no snow, while the American model suggests a significant snowstorm could impact areas from the Appalachians to possibly the I-95 corridor if conditions align.

Could there be a snowstorm in the Northeast late next week?

On the feed today, we're going to go ahead to next week. Remember last week I talked about the possibilities. We're going to have to keep an eye along the East Coast between the 12th and the 18th of January next week. We're going to have to keep an eye on that. The pattern is unfolding that there's the potential for snow along the East Coast late next week. I'm not sure how it's all going to materialize, but there is the pattern that brings the threat. I want to show you this. This is the pattern. Now, we've had this pattern a lot of times in December and it's never materialized for a big storm and here's why. First of all, we're going to see a big dip in the jet stream coming in back across the Northeast and the lakes late next week. Here's the key. There will be energy in the southern branch of the jet stream that forms the storm. Does this storm run out ahead of this dip in the jet stream in the northern branch and be guided up the coast? If it does, there will be a snowstorm. It'll be mostly north and west of the 95, but I'm not sure yet, but there would be a snowstorm here from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. However, if the energy in the southern branch doesn't get out ahead of this dip in the jet stream, and we've seen that time and time again since the winter or since the late fall, then the storm goes out to sea and there's a limited amount of snow. That's the pattern for next week. Now, I know a lot of you are saying, he's always calm for a snowstorm. I'm not. I'm telling you that the pattern is there for an East Coast snowstorm. It's there whether it materializes. That's what we're going to try to show you here, and I'll show you why you could. I'm going to show you the American model, and I think when I show you the American model, I may break the internet because it shows a big snowstorm. I'm not sure it's right, but I'll show you why it's a possibility, and we all go back to this. I talk about this all the time. It's called what? The Reyno Rule. Whenever you get an injection of cold air, you have two opportunities for snow. As the cold air comes in on the front end, or as the cold air gets established and then the storm tries to attack the cold air, and then you get back into the snow with the injection of cold air. In this case, it's going to be on the front end of the storm, so it follows my rule that I follow pretty closely, and I'm going to show it to you. I'm going to show you how the cold air is coming in as we head into next week. Now, this is Monday, January the 12th, and there's virtually no cold air, but watch what happens in here. This is your injection of cold air. All of the modeling is showing this because all of the modeling shows this dip in the jet stream coming east, so here it comes. Here comes the cold air. Wednesday into Thursday, you see the cold air coming into the lakes. This will be chance number one. That'll be late Wednesday into Thursday. Now, if that doesn't materialize, you've got another dip in the jet stream and another surge of cold air coming when? Friday into Saturday. That will be chance number two. So there's two opportunities for snow next week from the mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Now, let me show you the modeling here. I'm going to show you the European first, which is less impressive. Let's show you that one first. So, here's the pattern as we head into late next week. Watch. See, you've got this big dip in the jet stream coming here. Wednesday into Thursday, you see that? So here comes the cold air. Now, here's the key. You see the northern branch and the southern branch. You see the southern branch energy? For this to turn into a snowstorm Wednesday into Thursday, this energy has to come out ahead of this northern piece right in here. This has to run out ahead of this. This would form the storm, then come to the Northeast. Now, the European says no. European says, uh-uh, ain't happening. But you see how the energy goes with the storm? It's moving the northern piece and the southern piece move at the same speed. So what ends up happening? Well, look at the surface map. We do get a storm to form Wednesday into Thursday, but watch where it goes. Out to sea, and it's a miss. You see that? There it is, Thursday, out to sea, miss. We've seen this time and time again. Now, what I'm about to show you is going to get everybody excited. It's the American model. I'm skeptical of it, but it's worth me showing you. First of all, there's the European. There's the American model. Very similar. Notice, they both show a dip in the jet stream coming across the lakes and moving to the Northeast. But the difference is going to be this piece. The American model strengthens it and brings it out ahead of this northern piece, and you get a snowstorm. Watch it. Right here. Boom, boom. I mean, boom. There it is, Friday morning, Friday evening. Look at that. You've got an upper level low going right up the Appalachians. What does it look like on a surface map? Now, for those that want snow, relax. I'm not saying it's going to happen. But it's going to excite you if you want snow and depress you if you don't. Watch this. Thursday, here comes the storm. Where is it forming? Down here. But because that energy is out ahead of this trough, watch where it goes. Watch where it goes. Boom, boom, boom. Look at... Now, this would be rain. I'm for Philadelphia and New York City, but there could be some front-end snow. This would be a huge snowstorm for the Appalachians. But remember, if this storm's a little farther east, then the I-95's in it. I think the threat is there, Thursday into Friday. There it goes. Now, again, that's the America model. The European model says, no, it's not there. It's there. That's chance number one. Chance number two. Let's show you European. There we go. But see, now you've got another trough coming down. You see that? Right in here. That's Saturday, Sunday. And you'll notice, yours is a northern piece, southern piece. European says, there's going to be just enough energy out ahead of it that you've got a shot along the I-95 corridor over the weekend. The GFS says, no, it's out to sea. Two chances, Thursday next week and then over the weekend. What's going to verify? Not sure yet. But remember this pattern. And remember, the opportunity is there.

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