AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish explains the factors limiting development of tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean and what could change in the week ahead.

Georgia

Meteorologists are monitoring the Atlantic for potential tropical storm development, noting that while ocean temperatures are sufficiently warm, other factors are limiting storm formation. High levels of dry air and significant wind shear across much of the region are currently preventing tropical systems from organizing. 

There are some areas near the southeast coast of the United States where wind shear is less pronounced, offering a limited opportunity for development. However, the overall risk of tropical disturbances bringing rain and wind to land remains low for the coming week.

Could the U.S. have another tropical storm by mid-July?

When it comes to tropical development, there are often three big things we look for. One is warmth. We have plenty of warm water. Another is moisture. Right now, there's a lot of dry air. You will notice very few big tropical waves that are healthily crossing the Atlantic. We have some clusters of some moisture off the southeast coast into areas near the Bahamas, parts of Cuba, and kind of hugging some of Central America. So we've got warmth. We have the eye on the amount of moisture out there, and also wind shear, and we'll look at that as well. Sometimes wind shear, if it's strong enough, can disrupt anything and prevent it from organizing. So the first box is checked here. We've got water temps above 80 degrees, in fact, several degrees above 80, mid-80s for a lot of us into the Gulf and into the western Atlantic. So that's not a limiting factor, but what is a limiting factor are really twofold. One, we have a lot of wind shear over the Caribbean. That's keeping us out of trouble in the Caribbean and even into parts of the central Atlantic. But there's limited wind shear near the southeast coast, so that kind of opens the door for some potential trouble. Again, if you're on the left side of this scale here on the key, the lighter shades of pink or purple are where we don't have a whole lot of shear. There is some limited opportunity for development there, but things are shut down farther out there. And another inhibiting factor farther out is some dry air. Frequent pockets of Saharan dust migrating across the Atlantic and even at times into the Gulf as well. So all these factors are kind of coming together to keep us with a limited risk of development between this would be, what, Sunday and the mid to late part of next week north of Bermuda. Some opportunity for some of the moisture to kind of break off and slide north and some chance of development there. And then a little farther down the line late next week, limited chances for development near the Gulf itself. So we're going to keep our land risk of rain and wind from the tropical disturbances a low risk.

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