Ajay Rajadhyaksha from Barclays says the recent rally in gold is driven by central banks' increased purchases over the past two and a half years, rather than by concerns about the Federal Reserve’s institutional credibility. He adds that if markets were truly worried about the Fed’s credibility, bond markets would not have remained clam.

Wall Street

Barclays analysts assert that the recent rise in gold prices is primarily due to increased central bank buying, particularly following the freezing of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, rather than concerns about the Federal Reserve's credibility or inflation. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding Fed Chair Jay Powell's future, broader financial markets, including equities and bond yields, have shown little sign of distress.

Market expectations for a near-term Fed rate cut have actually decreased, with the probability of a cut in March dropping from 25% to 21%. Barclays emphasizes that the gold rally is a gold-specific phenomenon and not indicative of wider financial market fears about the Fed or inflation.

Central banks' purchases driving gold, not Fed concerns: Barclays

I just took a look at my calendar, what we're in the second week of the new year of January, right? We've already had Venezuela, threats against Greenland, threats against Iran as well. The president says we're locked and loaded, the U.S. military, right? Threats against Jay Powell, yet, yet in risk, right? We have the Dow and the S&P overnight, right? Still up, cracking fresh record highs. And you think this is going to be, this shows that 2026 is going to basically be a repeat of 2025, ignore the geopolitics, just focus on the AI trade, all is going to be good. One thing I left out though, here's the but, and I want to get you to talk to us about this. The but for me is what's happening to Chair Powell right now. And yes, risk is very much risk on, but I want to bring up the gold chart and give viewers a look at that and have you talk to us about that, Ajay. I was telling viewers a couple of minutes ago that usually gold ramps when investors start getting worried about inflation, but inflation is kind of sticky, but it's not exactly ramping. A lot of folks are saying that gold has passed 4,600 now, not because of inflation, but because of institutional risk hanging over the Fed. What do you think? I would push back on that interpretation. Remember, Martin, gold's been in a three-year bull market. This is not new, number one. Number two, we instinctively understand why gold has done as well as it has done. Since the West froze Russia's FX reserves, central bank buying of gold has exploded in the last two and a half years, supply has not kept up. And that's the big reason. The thing is, if the market was genuinely worried about Fed institutional credibility, why is the bond market so calm? Ten-year bond yields barely moved. If your ten-year inflation break-evens, for example, didn't do anything, five-year inflation break-evens, a measure of market expectations of long-term inflation, which would surely be impacted if you thought that the Fed was going to start to be irresponsible, ultra-easy. Those should have headed up a lot today. They didn't move at all. This is very gold-specific. Equity markets, the dollar moved a little bit. This is a very measured reaction from overall financial markets, and I think for good reason. OK, but what is going to – I was going to ask you first what is going to happen to rates, but I think the more immediate question is what is going to happen to Jay Powell and what is going to happen to the Fed, because at this rate, you know, unless this whole DOJ case is cleared up, I'm not sure any nominations are going to be able to get through. Right. So Chair Powell is getting a significant amount of support from Republicans on the Hill. Like you said, Senator Tom Pellis, who's not running for re-election, so presumably he's impervious to any new political pressure, has made it clear – he sits on the Senate Banking Committee – he's made it clear that he will block, and he can block, any nominees for Fed chair until this issue is resolved. Now I don't know what will actually end up happening. What I can tell you is that on Friday close, the market had a 25% probability of the Fed cutting in March. Today's close, the market's probability went down to 21%. No one, honestly, no one in financial markets thinks that this move increases the chance that the Fed will cut more quickly. That ain't happening.

President Claudia Sheinbaum has sought to safeguard Mexican sovereignty while cooperating with the US on key issues.

Mexico City

Mexico’s Sheinbaum rejects Trump’s threat of strikes on drug cartels

President Donald Trump said that any country which does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on trade with the U.S., as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years.

Trump says nations trading with Iran will face 25% U.S. tariffs

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says his country is ready for war but also for dialogue, after US President Donald Trump said the US is considering ‘very strong options’ in response to Iran’s crackdown on antigovernment protests.

Iran FM Araghchi warns ready for war if U.S. wants to ‘test’ it

Britain will bring into effect a law criminalizing the creation of non-consensual intimate images this week, technology minister Liz Kendall told parliament after regulator Ofcom launched an investigation into Elon Musk's X.

London

UK investigates Musk's X over Grok sexual deepfakes

Iran's internet was cut off late last Thursday, apparently in an attempt by government authorities to prevent protesters from organizing and uploading videos for the outside world to see.

Tehran

Iran enforcing nationwide internet blackout amid protests

Malaysia and Indonesia have become the first countries to block Grok, the artificial intelligence chatbot developed by Elon Musk's company xAI, amid concerns that it is being misused to generate sexually explicit and nonconsensual images.

Malaysia and Indonesia block Musk’s Grok over sexualized AI images

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has welcomed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is on a two-day visit. Merz is traveling with a large business delegation as Germany seeks to deepen economic and security ties.

New Delhi

Germany's Merz makes first official visit to India

At the first major awards show of the season, "One Battle After Another" and "Adolescence" both won four awards. In a surprise win, "Hamnet" upset "Sinners" for best motion picture for a drama.

Los Angeles

"One Battle After Another," "Adolescence" win big at Golden Globes

Fallout from the fatal shooting of Renee Good by a U.S. immigration and customs enforcement officer in Minneapolis continues with government officials standing by the action and ordering more ICE officers into the city.

Minneapolis

Hundreds more ICE agents headed to Minneapolis after fatal shooting

Powell said the investigation, linked to a testimony he gave to a Senate committee about renovations to Fed buildings, was an attempt to limit central bank independence.

Washington

U.S. opens criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell

Protests continue in Iran amid a violent government crackdown. Activists say hundreds of demonstrators have been killed. President Trump says Iran now wants to negotiate to prevent a U.S. military response.

Trump says Iran 'wants to negotiate' as protests intensify

President Trump says Iranian leaders have reached out to the U.S. to negotiate, as massive protests continue and more deaths are reported by activists.

Trump weighs military option in Iran amid rising death toll

President Trump has been briefed on new military options for a strike against Iran amid widespread protests and a government crackdown on communications for Iranians, a senior U.S. official tells CBS News. "We'll be hitting them very hard where it hurts," he said at the White House.

Trump briefed on new military options for Iran strikes amid protests

Demonstrations in Iran are now entering their third week and the death toll is surging with hundreds killed, according to a human rights group. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei insisted that the Islamic regime will "not back down" in the face of the growing social unrest and calls for regime change.

Protests in Iran intensifying despite threat of death for dissidents

The Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas showcased a wide array of AI-powered innovations, including paper-thin televisions, interactive Lego, and binoculars that can identify bird species in real time. Notable breakthroughs included .Lumen's AI glasses for the visually impaired and Roborock's Saros Rover, a robotic vacuum cleaner capable of navigating stairs and various surfaces autonomously.

Las Vegas

Rise of AI

AI-powered innovation dominates Consumer Electronics show

Human remains were found in Australia's southeast where bushfires raging for days have razed buildings, cut power to thousands of homes and burned swaths of bushland, police said. The blazes are burning out of control during a summer heat wave in Victoria state.

Victoria

'Gut-wrenching': Australian bushfires expected to burn for weeks

Anti-government protests in Iran show no sign of stopping. Human rights groups are putting the death toll at 116 with 2600 detained. U.S. President Donald Trump has reaffirmed U.S. support for the protesters.

Protests in Iran defy government crackdown

Iran's army is threatening to join the crackdown on protesters as demonstrations against the regime grow and the death toll mounts. Huge crowds have taken to the streets across the Islamic Republic. Iran's Revolutionary Guard calls them "terrorists." Haley Ott has more details.

Iran's army threatens to join crackdown against protesters

President Trump said, "We are going to do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not," earlier this week. But Greenland, a territory of Denmark and a NATO ally, is rejecting the threats.

Nuuk

Greenland rejects Trump's threats

Trump, who often cites national security interests as the reason for taking Greenland, said that if the US does not do something, 'Russia or China will take over Greenland'.

Trump says U.S will act on Greenland, 'whether they like it or not'

Protests across the U.S., including in Minneapolis, Philadelphia and Miami, are taking place following the fatal shooting of 37-year-old Renee Good by an ICE agent in Minneapolis. Police declared the demonstrations in downtown Minneapolis an 'unlawful assembly'.

Philadelphia

Protests spread across the U.S. over ICE shooting of woman

Internet and phone lines in Iran have been cut off as anti-government protests enter their second week. Reports say at least 65 people have been killed and more than 2,300 others detained. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of a possible U.S. response to the government crackdown.

Internet blackout in Iran enters second day as protests intensify

Rescue workers are trying to find dozens of people trapped under a collapsed landfill in the Philippines. At least four people have been confirmed dead. The incident took place on Thursday, with more than 100 workers on site at the time.

Cebu City

Philippines: Dozens still missing in landfill collapse

BRICS nations have launched joint naval exercises off the South African coast. Supporters say the drills will strengthen co-operation among emerging economies.  But critics warn they could deepen global divisions.

Simon's Town

South Africa hosts Russia, Iran and China for military exercise

Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned on Saturday that safeguarding security was a "red line" and the military vowed to protect public property, as the clerical establishment stepped up efforts to quell the most widespread protests in years.

Iran authorities signal intensified crackdown as unrest grows

Luigi Mangione was back in court on Friday, where his lawyers worked to block the Justice Department from seeking the death penalty in his federal trial for the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Mangione pleaded not guilty in April 2025.

New York

Luigi Mangione's lawyers fight to block death penalty

Fire crews battle spreading blazes while communities face evacuations and power cuts.

Thousands of firefighters deployed to fight bushfires in Australia

The protest comes amid wider rallies against US immigration enforcement and over the fatal shooting of the 37-year-old Renee Nicole Good.

Several arrested in Minneapolis during anti-ICE protest

Trump says U.S. will act on Greenland, 'whether they like it or not'

U.S. President Donald Trump began a meeting to discuss Venezuela with executives from some of the world's largest oil companies at the White House, saying he wants them to invest $100 billion in the country to vastly expand its production.

Breakdown