'Fast Money' trader Tim Seymour talks the jump in cannabis stocks on reclassification rumors.

Washington

Cannabis stocks saw a significant rally, with the Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF surging nearly 55% in one day, following reports that former President Trump may support reclassifying marijuana from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3. Industry leaders and key political figures, including RFK Jr. and advisors to Trump, have advocated for this change, which would not require congressional action but could be implemented through an administrative order.

Rescheduling cannabis could legalize the medical market, change tax treatment, and allow for exchange listings, potentially attracting institutional capital to the sector. The move is seen as a major catalyst for the industry, with discussions reportedly intensifying since August and recent developments described as notably different from previous headlines.

Cannabis stocks rally on reports Trump will reclassify marijuana

Fast money trader Tim Seymour. He's behind, of course, the Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF, which surged nearly 55% today. It's best day on record. Such a good day that Tim comes to us in a hoodie. In a hoodie. We're talking cannabis. Why wouldn't we? I mean, the rescheduling, that has been something that investors are hoping for. It seems like you get a whiff of it, the socks go up. You say this is for real this time. Why? No pun intended. So I think it is real. I think it's always been real. I think even at the end of the Biden administration, the idea of rescheduling was out there. Remember, this doesn't require a congressional follow through. It doesn't require legislation. This is an administrative order. Trump's been very clear all along. The question was, could we get this in front of Trump? And could it be something that has enough of a priority? It's very clear that the industry has engaged Washington in a way that I think is much more sensible, been much more focused. I think there's no question that top CEOs have been in Mar-a-Lago, have been in D.C., have been working with the president's team. I think there's no question that RFK Jr. and the HHS and even Dr. Oz have weighed in on this. And important people around the president have said, schedule three from schedule one makes a ton of sense. And I don't think this is even that controversial, even in a world of bipartisan dynamics. In fact, I think the call Wednesday night that is spoken about in The Washington Post article that was out last night between President Trump and Speaker Johnson is one that just really kind of explained what can happen. And the question is on the timing. The implications for this are incredible for the industry. And I do think that this is the kind of a domino to fall that would get other things going that don't necessarily have to be legislative fall through either, including exchange listings, which I think is the holy grail here, because that really would bring in institutional capital. If you're investing in cannabis here, there's not institutional capital. Right. And that's what I wanted to go to. We have the screen up, Tim, in terms of the domino effect or the different tentacles, the different ways stocks will benefit. It's not just that the products themselves are no longer regulated in the same way as a cocaine, for instance. It's all these other effects, including listings, including access to capital, et cetera. So Schedule 3 effectively legalizes the medical cannabis market. But it absolutely does mean, so understand that at a Schedule 1 drug, cannabis is taxed in a way that basically profits, gross profits are absolutely taxed. It makes it almost technically impossible for companies to be profitable in any way. Vertically integrated companies can work within accounting constructs to be more profitable. But this has huge implications right now for free cash flow. And this is something that the industry, at a time when a number of big companies have also actually pushed and rolled out some debt, have actually dealt with restructuring debt and have more to go, I think it's very important. It's potentially important for the 25 calendar year where there are taxes payable. If this gets done before the end of the tax year, it could actually be a boom even for 25 free cash flow. But more importantly, it really is would be arguably the most important moment in catalysts from a DC perspective. Again, this wouldn't be legislation. This would be administrative order. I think a lot would follow from here. We've heard headlines before. The sources I have in DC, the dynamics that I know have been going on for the industry now for months. Remember, we started getting real talk of Trump doing this in August. By the way, CNBS closed at the highs, but also at the high level where prices went at the end of August. A lot of cannabis stocks did. We were on record volume. I think this does feel different. Transcribed by https://otter.ai

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