Turkiye is warning an escalation in hostilities in the Black Sea is affecting shipping routes and trade. Kyiv has been carrying out strikes on Russia's so-called 'shadow fleet' of unmarked tankers, that's believed to be used as a way to avoid oil sanctions.

Istanbul

Recent attacks on Russian vessels near Turkiye's coast have raised concerns about the stability of the Black Sea, a region traditionally governed by the 1936 Mantra Convention. Ukrainian intelligence claims responsibility for the strikes, targeting Russia's so-called Shadow Fleet to limit its war financing, while Turkiye maintains a neutral stance and calls the attacks a dangerous escalation.

The incidents have led to significant increases in war risk insurance and freight rates, threatening regional trade and impacting vital shipping routes for Turkiye, Romania, and Bulgaria. Turkiye has warned that continued attacks could bring the conflict closer to its shores and disrupt global commerce through one of the world's busiest maritime corridors.

Black Sea strikes: Turkiye warns about escalations in shipping routes

For decades, the Black Sea has been one of Turkey's most stable strategic spaces, governed in part by the Mantra Convention, a 1936 treaty that gives Turkey control over the Turkish Straits and regulates military access to the Black Sea. But that stability is now under threat. On December 2, a Russian vessel was hit off the Turkish coast within Ankara's Exclusive Economic Zone. Days earlier, two other tankers were struck, causing fires and hull damage. Ukrainian intelligence released footage of the strikes, saying the vessels were part of Russia's sanctioned Shadow Fleet and that the aim was to limit Moscow's ability to finance its war. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the attacks a dangerous escalation. Russia condemned them as terrorist acts. Ukraine is forcing Turkey to choose sides. Turkey is neutral and genuinely neutral. It has a balanced policy in the conflict. Now Ukraine is pushing, Americans are selling out Ukraine, but they want us on their side. And they think that by pushing us against Russia, they can achieve that. This is a dream. Ukraine has used naval drones throughout the war, but these latest strikes bring the conflict closer to southern commercial routes relied on by Black Sea shipping. Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria discussed the latest drone attacks on Russia-bound tankers as regional concerns over Black Sea security grow. Earlier in the day, Romania's military said it had destroyed a Ukrainian-made maritime drone drifting off Constanta, a claim Kyiv has denied. War risk insurance premiums that were once $14,000 have jumped to $80,000. Freight rates that were $25 are heading towards $70. After the latest strike, insurers may not allow vessels into Rostov at all. When freight and insurance rise this high, Russian trade stops, and that is exactly what Ukraine is aiming for. Pipelines, grain routes, undersea cables and oil shipments that feed Turkish industry now lie within range of long-distance drones. Behind me is one of the world's busiest maritime corridors linking the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara and on to the Mediterranean. Turkey has said the strikes bring the war in Ukraine dangerously close to its coastline. And while Turkish ships can reach international waters through the Aegean Sea, the vessels from Romania and Bulgaria depend on this route. For them, the risks are even higher. The Black Sea is now a front line of both commerce and conflict, and Turkey warns that unless the attacks stop, the consequences may extend far beyond its shores. Sinem Kozolu, Al Jazeera, Istanbul.

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