The latest update from the National Hurricane Center shows a slight increase in the chance of development for an area of interest near Florida. The chance for subtropical or tropical development over the next seven days has increased from 20% to 30%.

Florida

The National Hurricane Center has raised the chance of subtropical or tropical development for a weather system near Florida to 30% over the next seven days. This increase comes as forecasting models show greater consensus on the possibility of a low pressure system forming in the region.

The area of interest is currently associated with an upper tropospheric low and is not yet showing signs of surface-level tropical development. Meteorologists note that the probability has increased slightly and that the focus has shifted to a spot off the Southeast Coast, with the next named storm in the Atlantic to be called Chantal if development occurs.

Area to watch near FL now up to 30% chance of development

We've got now 30% chance of developing over the next seven days. So NHC's just kind of bumped this up a little bit. Probably because there's a little bit more of an agreement in the models of maybe a chance for a low pressure system. But, you know, think about that. Three out of 10 chance of developing. Notice this little spin out through here. This is associated with an upper tropospheric low. So this isn't tropical necessarily in terms of surface development, but it's something we'll watch. Because sometimes you can get a little something that bores down to the surface. But anything with this, the farther north it goes, the better it's going to go out. So the Europeans kind of come around to the GFS thinking, you remember yesterday it was heavy loaded in the Gulf. Now it's kind of come over and said, you know, I kind of like this little spot off the Southeast Coast for a chance to develop. So the probabilities have come up a little bit from yesterday overall. And they're kind of focused where the GFS is. Chantal is the next name. You know, don't ask me if we're going to get there or not. I'll just tell you what we're seeing today.

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