Isabelle Mateos Y Lago, group chief economist at BNP Paribas, discusses tariffs and their impact on the global and U.S. economy.

Donald Trump has signed an order to impose tariffs imports into the U.S. from countries including China, Mexico and Canada.

Global Tariffs

Isabelle Mateos Y Lago, the group chief economist at BNP Paribas, elaborates on the economic repercussions of tariffs on the global landscape and specifically on the U.S. economy. She notes that while there is some relief from immediate concerns, the long-term effects remain uncertain. Mateos Y Lago emphasizes that the U.S. economic momentum has been significantly harmed, pointing to potential benefits in other regions due to increased policy activity triggered by the situation.

The economist highlights the shifting economic landscape, underscoring that the U.S. economy, forecasted for growth by the International Monetary Fund earlier, now faces a heightened probability of recession. This downturn, she suggests, is primarily driven by enacted tariffs and related policies. Meanwhile, other regions, particularly in Europe, display increased policy activity reminiscent of historic responses, which may offer temporary regional benefits.

In Europe specifically, there is impetus for intensified domestic investment, following significant policy decisions in Germany concerning defense and infrastructure. Mateos Y Lago suggests that European countries are poised to adjust, not only compensating for the reduced demand from the U.S. but potentially increasing imports from the U.S. This could mitigate the recessionary effects of tariff policies substantially.

Mateos Y Lago suggests that while European nations remain exposed to economic shocks, the internal focus may soften the blow. It remains uncertain how Europe’s investment approach will unfold, but the potential exists for increased European-U.S. economic engagement, which could balance the scales without leading to a full recession.



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