AccuWeather's Paul Pastelok shares the fall forecast for 2025. He explains which areas will transition to fall the quickest as well as what to expect with severe weather including the tropics.

Meteorologists have identified four main factors influencing the upcoming fall season: tropical activity, lingering summer moisture, northern Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies, and the strength of the jet stream. The western United States is expected to experience a slower transition to fall with above-average temperatures, while the upper Midwest and northern Plains may see an earlier onset of cooler weather and even early snowfall.

The forecast also notes a secondary peak in severe weather during the fall, with the potential for wind and hail events, particularly in the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Flood risks remain elevated in areas such as the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians due to saturated ground from previous seasons. The northeast is likely to see a warm and humid start to fall, followed by a significant transition later in the season.

What to expect for the upcoming fall season

Paul, there are so many factors at play in this year's fall forecast. What impacts will they have? And you talk about those? Yeah, there's several actually four factors that are going to go into this forecast. We've been putting this together for the last couple of months. I think the main one is, first of all, we've got to look at the tropics. Everything's still wide open here along the Gulf Coast in the Southeast Coast for a possible hit going into the fall season. So that's gonna be a focus point. We've had a lot of moisture already this summer across the Tennessee Valley, the Mississippi Valley, and some of that moisture could get into there, and that moisture could be sticking around into the early fall, and that can have an effect on our nighttime lows. So we could see some warm nights out of that. Another big factor is the northern Pacific Ocean water temperature anomalies. I think there's going to be a very strong and active jet stream farther displaced to the north, which would bring more moisture into Canada in the northwest, keeping things drier for much of the western part of the United States. So you could see warmer than average temperatures as well. I think that's gonna be a big factor. And then the dip. How big is the dip as you get farther east to when the cool downs will come that we normally see in fall season? All right, so the map that you're seeing on your screen now is representing our transition to fall. Of course, you know, meteorological fall begins in September, September 1st, and then, you know, the actual start of the season later. But what can you tell us when it comes to to the weather feeling a bit more like fall? Yeah, and we just talked about how it could be warmer than average in the western U. S. And I think the transition from places like Nevada, California, Utah is gonna be a lot slower going into that fall season feeling across those areas. But the dip that takes place over the upper Midwest and northern Plains states that could be starting up a little bit earlier than normal, maybe about a week or two. We could start seeing snow in places like Bismarck that average around October 26. They could see some snow, maybe possibly as early as mid to late October. So I do think that that area of the country will see an early start to the fall, maybe even winter season. It's crazy. We talk about snow will break that down a little bit more. But let's talk about temperatures. I think a lot of us, you know, when it goes back to school or even thinking Halloween, there's been sometimes that we've had very warm other times there's been snow. Yeah, here you look at this map and again, more of the focus of the warmth is in the western U. S. If you look back at last year, we tied 2016 for the warmest fall season on record. Most of the country should be above average coming up here. But these ups and downs will keep you at bay here, maybe in Chicago, Minneapolis. The front sides warmer, probably than the backside in this area and the eastern U. S. We're seeing some drier conditions across eastern Canada and the northeast. I think that will have an impact on your temperatures, especially going to September. Could be a warm and at times humid periods expected across New England and parts of the Middle Atlantic. We have to talk about the secondary peak of severe weather being in the fall. What is the long range team looking at for severe weather risks? Yeah, it's not out of the picture yet. I think the tornado outlook maybe up and down, maybe lower than we've seen this last couple of falls. But I do feel that we still can get wind damage and hail amounts that take place. It's gonna be a stronger contrast that sets up from the warm, humid conditions that set up in the southeast, the Tennessee Valley and Mississippi Valley to those cool downs we talked about earlier coming into the northern plains and upper Midwest. Watch October. I think that could be the month that we see more action going on, even farther north in the Midwest and the Ohio Valley, possibly seeing a couple of big events during that time period. That's helpful updates for people. And I think when we look back of this summer, the word everyone's gonna remember is flooding. So important to focus on what spots could be in the risk zone for flooding this fall season. Yeah, and you go into the fall season because of what we've seen so far in the summer and the late spring. There's areas that are just vulnerable. Okay, it's not gonna take much to cause flooding in that areas like the Tennessee Valley, the central Appalachians and even along the Gulf Coast being enhanced by any tropical activity that could come into this region. We're still watching here in August. That's getting a little busy, right? You just talked about that a little while ago. We could see enhanced flooding precipitation across the Gulf Coast in the southeast as well. And Paul, let's add on a positive note. Although not a snow lover, I'm speaking for everybody else who is who could see some of the first snow this fall season. Well, I'm looking, you know, it's always the mountains of the of the northwest, the interior northwest. Yes, they see it a little bit earlier, late September, early October. That's about normal, though. Okay, that's about average. It's farther across the northern plains, upper Midwest. They may see it about a week or two earlier than average. Like I said earlier, Bismarck averages around October 26th. They could see it maybe a week or two earlier, maybe their first measurable snowfall. The northeast is well on average, but still again, you're gonna see warm and humid conditions in September, and then you go to this transition in the last part of the fall season. It's a big flip, and I think that's what we're gonna see is a big transition in the northeast coming up this fall. Accurately, long range expert Paul Pastelak. We thank you so much for your expertise and looking forward to fall.

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