On this installment of “All Over the Map” John King travels to the ultra-competitive AZ-6 district to hear from voters the already positive and negative impacts of Trump’s mega bill.

Tucson

In Arizona's 6th Congressional District, residents and business owners are seeing the effects of a new federal law that lowers taxes on tips and overtime, a measure credited by some with boosting job applications and hiring quality. The district, a political battleground, is also home to a significant Hispanic population, whose voting patterns have shifted in recent elections, with Republicans making notable gains.

While the immediate tax relief is welcomed by some, concerns remain about the law's delayed changes to Medicaid and food assistance programs, which are set to take effect after the next election. Local food banks anticipate increased demand as these changes are implemented, highlighting the ongoing debate over the balance between economic incentives and social support in the district.

Voters in battleground Arizona see impacts of 'Big Beautiful Bill'

A scorching summer in the Arizona desert, a risky time to open a new restaurant, add in higher beef prices and an unpredictable economy. Confident, hopeful, I believe a lot in this brand, I believe a lot that what we do is different. Charro Steak North is just about ready. The bar is stocked, supplies delivered, the team is hired, and for that, Ray Flores gives President Trump some credit, specifically the new law lowering taxes on tips and overtime. We had a really robust hiring fair, lots of applicants, way more than we've had in previous hiring fairs, a lot of quality applicants, a little higher quality. I do believe that those messages of some kind of tax relief created some of this. This is Arizona's 6th congressional district, one of the battlegrounds that will determine whether Republicans keep their House majority after next year's midterm elections. It is a district that covers a ton of ground. This is the edge of Tucson, but the district stretches 110 miles that way, that's east, to the New Mexico state line, and 60 miles, my right, is south, that's the U.S.-Mexico border, 60 miles that way. The district is a battleground because it is evenly divided politically, and because of that, it offers a great test of the big midterm questions. Republican Juan Siscamani is the incumbent. Charro Steak North is in his district, and Flores, an independent, has supported Siscamani in the past. How they sell that bill, whether that bill actually improves the economy because of the tax cuts or the no taxes on tips or overtime, that's a big deal for his political fate. What do you think at this moment? Got a ways to go, but what do you think now? I mean, I think, unfortunately for them, or for us to give a good answer right now, we're in the middle of the off-season. I think it's probably a question that needs to be asked a year from today. Here's another big test. 25% of the residents here in Arizona's 6th are Hispanic, and Republicans are hoping in next year's midterms to continue their recent important gains among Latino voters. It makes a big difference. Take a look. Here in Arizona, for example, Donald Trump won 37% of the Latino vote in 2020. He lost here and statewide. But in 2024, Trump's share jumped to 44%. He not only carried this district, he won statewide in Arizona on his way back to the White House. 15 months still to the midterms, but we will get a clue about Latino sentiment next month. There's a special election in the neighboring 7th Congressional District. It is overwhelmingly Democratic, but also 60% Hispanic. So welcome back to Sun, Arizona. This food bank serves both the 6th and 7th Congressional Districts, and is already dealing with some Trump changes. I believe you're from Mexico right now. Right. You are correct. That's going to change pretty soon with the tariffs and all that, so we're going to be definitely seeing less produce come in. But the biggest test is down the road. The Trump agenda bill makes big changes to Medicaid and food assistance programs critical to the working families who come here for help. Claudio Rodriguez wrote Congressman Scamani on behalf of the food bank, urged him to vote no. But he voted yes. So when you say, you know, sir, with all due respect, we think that's going to hurt people, what does he say? He believes that it won't, that he's attacking the fraud, the abuse, the scam. I don't know, when we come here every day on the line, we don't really see any of that. And if it is, if it is one or two people that do do that, why punish the rest? Why punish the seniors? Why punish the kids? The veterans, we have a lot of veterans that come through here. The food bank served 171,000 people last year, and projects that number will jump significantly as the Trump changes kick in. But the timing there is noteworthy. The politically popular tax break on tips in overtime takes effect immediately. But the biggest and politically risky changes to Medicaid and food assistance don't take effect until 2027, after the next election. I know some things are going to roll out after the midterms, which is a very nice play, you know, for some folks to wait until after that. That timeline, just one of the Trump agenda flashpoints in a place far away from Washington, yet critical to the Republican grip on power there. John King, CNN, Tucson. Woof, woof, woof, woof.

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Breakdown