AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on July 10 to discuss the chances of tropical development.

Panama City Beach

Meteorologists from AccuWeather have noted that the Atlantic hurricane season is progressing ahead of historical averages, with three named storms already recorded. Warmer-than-average water temperatures near the United States have contributed to early tropical development, a trend that was anticipated by experts earlier in the year.

Currently, the Atlantic is experiencing conditions that make further storm development challenging, such as dry air and hostile winds. Research into Atlantic water temperature patterns, specifically the Atlantic Niña, suggests that cooler waters off the west coast of Africa may slow new storm formation. While the immediate risk of significant storms remains low, meteorologists continue to monitor the region closely for any changes.

Tracking chances for tropical development

Outside we go right now to Panama City Beach of Florida. Things pretty quiet here and of course tropical systems also are heavy rain producers and flash flood producers as well. So we always want to keep an eye out and keep our eye ahead to see what's brewing in the Atlantic Basin. With that, joining us right now is AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DiSilva. You know Alex, I think it's a lesson for us on how quickly things can change in the Atlantic Basin. We learned two weeks ago that we didn't have any storm, no prospects for storms, all of a sudden we have three storms and I've got to hand it to you and the long range team. You warned us back in early March that we would have an early start to the hurricane season or what I should say is early season development and boy did that occur over the last ten days. Yeah, it certainly did. We were concerned way back in March that we could see early season tropical development, the water temperatures especially close to the United States are way warmer than average for this time of the year and so we thought that that would happen at the beginning of the hurricane season and throughout and then like you said, boom, boom, boom, checking these names off the list. The next name on the list is Dexter and we're already starting to highlight the potential for that in the next week or so. Just to give you some historical context here, I mean we're running now about a month ahead of historical averages. Yeah, we indeed are. The average third named storm which we just saw is at the beginning of August and we typically wait until August to see our first hurricane. Of course, we have not seen our first hurricane. That usually comes all the way on August 11th so typically early in the tropical season we see some tropical storms. The hurricanes are usually a little bit later in the tropical season as we decrease some of that wind shear and increase those water temperatures. What we're seeing right now in the Atlantic is nothing unusual. We see this a lot this time of the year. It is very difficult to get tropical waves to bust through Saharan dust and also wind shear and that's why what happened last year with Barrel coming out of the Atlantic and coming into Texas was so unusual. Yeah, that was such an incredible storm. The fact that we had the earliest Category 5 on record by a whole two weeks coming right through the Caribbean during early season was very, very unusual. Nothing like that coming up here over the next couple of weeks. Way too much dry air coming off of Africa and a lot of hostile winds across the Atlantic. If anything's going to develop, I think over the next week or two, it's going to be close to the United States. Certainly many are familiar with the term El Niño and La Niña, but some recent research now starting to point us also where El Niño and La Niña deals with the tropical Pacific. There's new research looking at water temperatures off the west coast of Africa, Alex. Yeah, this is a very active area of research. A lot of papers have come out over the last couple of years really talking about this Atlantic Niño or Atlantic Niña in this case, which is this boxed area off the west coast of Africa. You can see how much blue is in this area right now. We're in an Atlantic Niña right now and you can see how blue it is in that area. What the research has found is, especially down in that eastern main development region, so right off the coast of Africa there, this tends to slow tropical development. I'm thinking that if this holds on through the middle of the hurricane season, we could see a lot less of these robust tropical waves coming off of Africa and developing. On the contrary, if this area warms up and we see an Atlantic Niño, that tends to aid in tropical development, especially in that eastern main development region. It's all about homegrown development this time of the year when you have that jet stream coming on south. You can bring frontal boundaries, upper lows. That could produce showers and thunderstorms. That's what happened with Chantel and as we've been talking about, Alex, we're a little worried middle part of next week. Yeah, we're going to have to watch cold front coming down and we're going to have a dip in the jet stream in that area as well. Little bit of spin going on in the atmosphere through there, but the question we always have to wonder is, is it going to be sitting around long enough for things to take shape? Chantel just made it. There was enough time where that area of low pressure was able to build over the Gulf Stream. We're going to have to watch this one carefully as well. Looks like it would be in the northern Gulf. There is still a chance it could pop off the southeast coast towards the middle of the month, but low chance right now, but we're keeping an eye on it. And our lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva. Thanks for joining us, Alex. We'll talk to you at 10-15.

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