Hundreds remain missing in Texas as search and rescues continue after the horrific flooding that occurred in Kerr County.  AccuWeather's Jon Porter explains the dangerous reality of flash flooding.

Kerr County

Severe flash flooding in Kerr County, Texas, has resulted in hundreds of people missing as search and rescue operations continue. The rapid rise in water levels, reminiscent of previous tragic floods in the region, underscores the persistent danger of flash flooding in Texas and similar areas.

Meteorologists emphasize the importance of understanding flood risk terminology, such as the 'one-in-a-thousand-year flood,' and stress that rare events can still occur more than once in a short period. Despite timely warnings from authorities and meteorological services, significant loss of life occurred, highlighting the need for immediate action when warnings are issued and for public officials and businesses to have robust safety plans in place.

The dangerous reality of flash flooding

There was a devastating rise, once again, of about 30 feet in the water level. And look at this video. If you didn't have a date and time on it, you might think that was from this particular week. But this was back from the Blanco River in 2015. A tremendous tragedy there as well, with many people who tragically lost their life as the water rose very quickly and swept away homes and campers and things of that nature. So the point is, is that there's a long history of this. You mentioned as well the July 1987 flood along the Guadalupe River. That affected Comfort, Texas, and some of the same other communities that were hit by this flash flood. So flash flooding, unfortunately, has been part of the climatology and will be going forward in Texas and beyond. And John, it's important to understand terminology. You hear the term one-in-a-hundred-year flood, one-in-a-thousand-year flood, and it sounds like you can only expect flooding in that one location or any given location once every thousand years. That's not the exact and precise definition of that term. No, it isn't. And so it's very important to put that into context. Ariella built this great graphic to help explain this, and we love it because it describes what it is, which means that there's a 0.1% chance of that much rainfall in any given year, when you look back at the climatological records. It does not mean that it's not gonna happen again for a thousand years. So this is an indication that it's a low probability event, 0.1%, that's low. But it shows you when you get rainfall amounts that are that much, that indicates just how rare and unusual that event is. But it doesn't mean that it's not gonna happen for another thousand years. We have before and after pictures, John, and they're just frightening of what happened in Hunt, Texas. I wanna get your thoughts on it. This was right before the flooding, and then within several hours, it looked like this. Right, and I drew on the screen here the previous river channel for the Guadalupe River. And remember, this is many times a lazy, calm river, right, a beautiful river. You hear everybody talk about how beautiful this area is with that river, which is slowly moving water. But look at what happened after the flooding. Look at how much the water channel expanded with that wall of water that came down the Guadalupe River. And you can see all the tree and other debris here that were swept downstream. Just devastating flash flooding. And the people that were at greatest risk were those right along the river, because you notice even back a few blocks, there doesn't appear to have been much damage. So that's why the people who lived right along that river were at greatest risk. And John, how do we move forward? You're obviously part of the weather enterprise here. Every year, you and a team of meteorologists, including myself, go to the American Meteorological National Conference, where we meet with leaders within the meteorological field to try to prevent these kind of events. And I must say, the meteorological community is frustrated that this happened at all. It is, I can tell you, the weather enterprise. And here at AccuWeather, our hearts are with all the people, as we've talked about, that have been impacted by this. Because though there were very timely warnings, and we've talked about that here all week, flash flood warnings issued by the government's National Weather Service more than three hours before the peak of the flooding, AccuWeather expert meteorologists had alerted our customers and subscribers 30 minutes before in that area, providing even more advanced notice. Even though those warnings, timely warnings, were in place, there was still a significant loss of life, a tragic loss of life. So it's important to point out that flash flooding remains an increasing danger. And that's getting worse from a climate change perspective, as extreme rainfall events become more likely. We can't stop it. That's important to point out. However, what we've seen here, once again, although there was a horrible, tragic loss of life, many lives were saved. So proactive actions based upon warnings save lives, and the importance to act right when warnings are issued and not wait for any other information. And another key point here is public officials and businesses must do everything they can do to take warnings and enact safety plans. Lives depend on it. And that looks like where there was a big breakdown in this particular situation. A lot to be studied about that going forward. AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter. John, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

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