It's been 45 years since Mount St. Helens erupted — and scientists say it will erupt again in our lifetime. Johanna Wagstaffe breaks down what will make it different from the deadly blast in 1980 and how today’s technology is giving us an early warning system.

Skamania County

Mount St. Helens, an active and explosive volcano in the continental United States, last erupted 45 years ago in an event that was marked by a dramatic lateral blast. According to scientists, the volcano is expected to erupt again within our lifetime. Historically, Mount St. Helens has erupted more frequently than any other volcano in the continental US, typically on cycles of 30 to 100 years.

Recent monitoring has shown signs that the volcanic system remains active. For example, a spike in earthquake activity and movement of magma were recorded last June, though the magma did not reach the surface. Scientists refer to such activity as a "recharging event," indicating that the system is preparing for future eruptions.

Experts note that advances in technology have significantly improved early warning capabilities. Prior to the 1980 eruption, increased earthquake activity and swelling of the volcano were observed, which allowed time for evacuations. Today, more precise seismic monitoring allows scientists to closely track magma movement and predict potential eruptions with greater accuracy.

While another eruption is expected, scientists believe it will likely differ from the 1980 event. The earlier eruption was caused by a lateral blast when the volcano's flank collapsed, triggered by a landslide and rapid pressure drop. The resulting crater now acts as a pressure valve, making it more likely that future eruptions will vent upward or into the crater, rather than sideways.

However, an upward eruption does not necessarily guarantee safety, as the impact of volcanic activity remains difficult to predict. Despite technological improvements and better models, the natural force of such events remains significant.



Mount St Helen’s will blow again — but not like 1980

This is the side of Mount St. Helens blowing out 45 years ago. And this is where we think the next eruption will happen, which will be in our lifetime, by the way. But it's not going to play out the way you might think. Here's what we know, and why we're so confident it will happen. So first of all, the when. Mount St. Helens is an active, explosive, regularly scheduled volcano. It's erupted more than any other in the continental US over the past few centuries. And volcanoes like this tend to blow about once every 30 to 100 years. Yep, we're getting into that window. But here's the thing. These eruptions don't come out of nowhere. Scientists will see it coming. Kind of highlighted that these things don't necessarily occur out of the blue because there had been this swarm of earthquakes around the volcano that indicated that molten magma was moving up the throat of the volcano. And the other thing that was kind of ominous was the volcano was swelling. I think, you know, at that point they issued an evacuation. That was 1980, but Mount St. Helens is still very much alive. Just last June, there was another spike in earthquake activity. Magma started moving again. It didn't reach the surface, but scientists call this a recharging event, a sign that the system is priming itself. So yes, it will erupt again, and yes, we will get warning signs. But here's why the next eruption won't look like 1980. That one didn't blow straight up. It blew sideways. Why? Because the mountain's flank had been weakened by a large body of molten rock inside. Eventually, that slope gave way. A landslide triggered a rapid pressure drop, and the magma exploded out the side in what's called a lateral blast. That sideways eruption is what caught people off guard. Today, that slope is gone. In its place, a deep crater. And that crater acts like a pressure valve. If magma builds up again, it's more likely to vent upward or into the crater instead of pushing through a plugged, unstable slope. But don't get too comfortable. An eruption straight up doesn't necessarily mean it's safer. Damage and death is difficult to predict, but you can use the form of the volcano to kind of give you some idea. And the earthquakes now can be located so precisely with the seismic monitoring equipment that you can kind of even track how that magma is moving up through the throat in more detail than was possible in 1980. So 45 years later, we're not only expecting another eruption, we have better tools, better models, and a better sense of timing. But the force of nature, that's still very real. I remember very vividly, I was assembling a group for a geological field trip, actually. It was in Vancouver. As we were assembling, this was about 8 a.m., there was this huge, huge, what sounded to me like an explosion. There was a sound wave from the eruption, as it turned out, from the volcano. And it echoed off the North Shore mountains. It was just, it could have been a ship exploding in the harbor, but it was actually the eruption of Mount St. Helens. As the sound wave just jetted through the city, it was totally remarkable.

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