In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno breaks down the latest on the tropics.

Tropical Storm Melissa has formed in the Caribbean and is expected to become a hurricane. The storm is predicted to move slowly, increasing the risk of life-threatening flooding, particularly in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. While a U.S. landfall is considered unlikely at this stage, it cannot be ruled out, especially for Florida.

Forecast models show some disagreement on Melissa's exact track and intensity. The American model suggests a more northerly path with catastrophic rainfall for Hispaniola, while the European model keeps the storm farther south, potentially reducing impacts for Cuba and Hispaniola but increasing risks for Jamaica. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures and varying wind shear levels are influencing the storm's development and potential for rapid intensification.

Melissa to produce life-threatening flooding

And we are expecting Tropical Storm Melissa to be official in the Caribbean as we go through today. It will be the first named storm in the Caribbean of the Atlantic hurricane season here. Here's what to expect from Melissa over the next few days. We do believe it will develop into a hurricane later on this week. It's going to be a slow mover that's going to cause major problems with life-threatening flooding, perhaps, depending on the track, in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. A U.S. landfall at this point is unlikely, but it is not impossible. And I'm telling you, we cannot rule out Florida just yet. All right, let me show you what this looks like on the satellite picture here. And you can see it's getting a little better organized. It's cylindrical. You see it's round in appearance here. And look at the dark red showing you you have cold cloud tops. That means you have a lot of upward motion, and that means you have showers and thunderstorms. The concern all week, in fact, all hurricane season, is that since we haven't had a storm in the Caribbean or the Gulf, water temperatures are super-duper warm. Here's the anomalies. And so what you're looking at here, look at this orange area where this is located. I mean, you're at about three or four degrees above the historical average. Historically, we're looking at water temperatures around 84. Now we're talking about 87, 88 degrees. And warm water can overcome a lot of challenges. The only challenges for development here is wind shear right now. Let me show you the wind shear that we're looking at here. We're looking at 200 millibars, about 40,000 feet. What you're looking at is the darker colors that you see is where you have wind shear. Now, as we go forward, this is 15 degrees north. We talked about this last week. Anything north of 15 degrees north, you have some wind shear coming out of the west right in here. I mean, take a look. This is this evening, right? Let me take you to tomorrow evening, Thursday. You still have wind shear here. Here's 15 degrees north. Look at these west winds here. So anything coming up into this area, Melissa, while you have super duper warm water, the limiting factor to the strength will be wind shear. How about as we get, let's jump ahead into Friday. Look at the wind shear increasing here across the northern Caribbean. Now, south of 15 degrees north or near 15 degrees north in this area, there is less wind shear. And my worry is, as long as what will be Melissa moves northward into the northern Caribbean, it will not be able to rapidly intensify. But boy, the farther south this stays, the more worried I get. In fact, by Saturday, and again, by Saturday, we're going to be looking at this system somewhere in this box. You've got wind shear here. But if it would find its way down into here, between 20 and 15 degrees north, there's low wind shear. And with super duper warm water, this would rapidly intensify. So that's the concern. First thing is, how far north is this going to get? The farther north, the more likely it will not become a powerful hurricane. The farther south and west, the more likely it will. There's still lots of different guidance on this. I'll continue to show you what the modeling is showing, the American and the European models. And these models have stayed fairly consistent. We will begin with the American model. I want you to focus in here. The red, this is energy. This is the approximate location, given this model, where Melissa will be. Watch the American model. It's been very consistent. You see where it pulls it? North, north, north, north. Now, this is one of the models. A lot of the other what we call ensembles are west of here. But this is a possible track. This would be the worst-case scenario for Hispaniola, because it would then stall and produce tremendous and catastrophic rains. You see that? Look how it moves. This is Wednesday night. This is Thursday night. This is Friday night. This is Saturday morning. And then not moving away until early next week. This would be catastrophic. The European model a little different here. Now, they're very much the same at Thursday morning. European-American, European-American, European-American. Notice the American model strengthens it faster. There's more lines. Now, let's go to Friday morning. European-American. There's a difference. So this is when the American model, Friday morning, takes this across Hispaniola. The European says, no, it stays farther south and then continues to move farther south as we get into Sunday, as we get into Monday. And then by Tuesday morning, it's south of Jamaica. The European model would be a far better solution for Cuba and Hispaniola. That would leave the heaviest rain off to the south. Jamaica, this is the worst-case scenario. And I will say this. The farther south and west this goes as we get into early next week, the more likely it hits the United States or becomes more of a possibility. All right. Let me show you the AccuWeather eyepath here. Here it is. This is what we're going with right now. And let me put this on so you could see it. Right now, we're in the middle of those possibilities. A turn to the north or to the west, right? We're in the between. This would not be a good scenario for Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola because the rain amounts would be catastrophic, I'm afraid, where you'd be looking at amounts over a foot in some spots with an AccuWeather local storm max of 2 feet. So this is the worst-case scenario. But if this gets farther south and west, and by the way, if it would take this track, I think it would likely stay east of the United States. But what I'm worried about, if it takes this farther south and west track and there is guidance that shows that, then it becomes a problem potentially for the United States. And here's why. Because when you look at next week, you look at the pattern next week, I want to show it to you early next week. Look what this looks like as we go forward. You start getting a big dip in the jet stream here in Texas. Here's where the European has the storm. I don't like this trough so far west because that would give you some room to bring this to the United States. I'm not sure, but it is a concern. Take a look at this. Right now, this is what we're thinking. The more likely path stays east of the United States, but I'm worried you could have a track like this early next week towards South Florida. Not the most likely, but it's not impossible either.

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Breakdown