In China, local governments are getting creative in their efforts to boost birth rates, offering everything from free milk to cash incentives. But despite these measures, marriage rates have plummeted to an all-time low, and the impact is being felt across the economy.

Beijing

Chinese local governments have introduced a range of measures to boost declining birth rates, including offering free daily milk, cash incentives up to $13,000 per newborn, and marriage schools promoting domestic skills. Despite these efforts, official data shows that the number of marriages in China fell to 6.1 million in 2024, a record low and a 21 percent decrease from the previous year.

The impact of the long-standing one-child policy has been cited as a contributing factor to the rapid decline in fertility, with China's birth rate now at 0.9 children per woman, lower than Japan's 1.2. Social and economic pressures, such as the high cost of housing and living, are influencing young people's attitudes toward marriage and starting families. At marriage markets in Beijing, parents express concerns about finding suitable partners for their children, with home and car ownership often considered essential prerequisites.

The decline in marriage rates has affected related industries. Wedding planning businesses report a sharp drop in demand, with some companies now organising a fraction of the events they handled at their peak in 2012. Rising educational attainment is also changing social norms, with marriage no longer seen as a necessary step into adulthood, and some couples reporting feeling pressured into marrying by their families.

Divorce rates are increasing as well, reflected in a growing business sector focused on helping individuals dispose of personal effects from former marriages. One company reports that requests to destroy wedding mementos make up the majority of its sales, serving thousands of customers.

Analysts warn that falling birth rates could have wider economic consequences, especially for sectors reliant on children's consumption. In response, the government is expanding child care subsidies and free preschool education to support families and encourage higher fertility rates. Analysts anticipate that additional nationwide fertility benefits may be introduced in the near future.



Marriage meltdown: China's demographic crisis

A free cup of milk a day up to 13000 dollars per newborn child. Even a marriage school promoting slogans like I'm willing to make breakfast. I'm best at doing housework. These are some of the measures local governments in China are trying to boost the dwindling birth rates. The number of marriages in China dropped to six point one million in 2024 an all time low and down 21 percent from the previous year. China's one child policy accelerated the pace. Japan currently has one point two children per woman. But China currently has only zero point nine and it will decline. So China's decline speed is much faster than other countries. At this marriage market in Beijing parents are anxious to find a potential mate for their adult children. In China owning a house and a car is often a prerequisite. But many young people no longer want to subject themselves to the financial pressures of getting married and raising children. Do what I saw that big in my farm. For me buying a house in Beijing is the biggest problem because personally I don't want to settle down in Beijing because living here is really stressful. You know. Abby Gao has been running a wedding planning business for nearly two decades. She's witnessed firsthand the hit to the now 400 billion dollar marriage industry. So if all the unions are in your name. Our peak was probably in 2012. In that year we probably handled more than one thousand eight hundred weddings. Now most companies including ours plan about 100 weddings a year. Higher educational levels also mean marriage is no longer the default rite of passage to adulthood. I feel that among the newlyweds who are having weddings nowadays I can say that half of them are forced to do so trying to meet the needs of their parents. And while marriage rates decline divorce rates have been climbing. This firm started a business getting rid of personal effects to protect privacy. But the demand for destroying wedding mementos like albums dresses and even rings soon took up 90 percent of their sales. We have now served over 5000 customers with a daily volume of around dozens of orders beyond the wedding industry. Analysts warn the declining birth rates will have important implications for China's retail sector. The biggest consumer is children. It's a biological instinct for parents to spend money on their children. Therefore the more children there are the stronger the consumption power will be. That's one reason the Chinese government is pledging child care subsidies and free preschool education to boost the birth rate and reduce the demographic dread. Whether or not these incentives will be effective remains to be seen. But analysts expect more nationwide fertility benefits to be rolled out this year. Menlo Bloomberg News Beijing.

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