Anita Gupta, CIO of Wealthbrix Capital Partners, evaluates the key issues that could make or break markets in the short term: the Fed and Nvidia's upcoming earnings.

California

Analysts expect the negative impact of recent US economic slowdowns, including a potential 1% dip in Q4 GDP, to be temporary, with recovery anticipated in the first quarter of 2026 as government spending resumes. The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty due to limited access to jobs and inflation data, which has reduced the probability of a December rate cut to 50%, though the overall outlook remains for lower rates in the coming year.

Market focus is shifting to Nvidia's earnings announcement on November 19, considered the next major catalyst for global equities. Nvidia's performance is particularly important due to its central role in data center spending and its significant contribution to recent US earnings growth, making its results and guidance closely watched by investors.

Keep an eye on Nvidia as government shutdown, geopolitical risks fade

What we see is the effect on Q4 GDP is a slowing down of Q4 GDP, maybe about a percent lower, but we see that coming back in quarter one 2026. So while Q4 numbers could be lower, but that's going to be back. So I don't think that's a worry on the GDP because you're going to see government spending back and already they've announced a resumption of all flights in the US. You're going to also see some kind of agreement on health expenditure that's going to aid health insurance in the US. In terms of consumption, we did have a soft reading from the Consumer Confidence Index last month, and hopefully that's going to again pick up. So overall, we see that impact on the GDP is going to be short-lived in the US. Okay, what is it going to mean for the Fed as well? Because we've seen policymakers ultimately flying blind when it comes to having access to jobs and inflation numbers. So is there a risk that the Fed overcorrects in December? Well, Fed Chair Powell said after the last Fed meeting that it's like you're driving through a fog, but it's still without data. But when we're looking at the data releases, you're not going to probably get a CPI number before the next Fed meeting in December. So when you don't have that CPI number, we've already caught a probability of the next Fed cut down to 50%. Earlier, the December Fed meeting was priced indefinitely for a 25% cut. But what we see is that data, we're looking at CPI, the last CPI reading was at a 3% headline, as well as if you look at the core CPI. So if you're looking at a 3%, that's not too bad. We see inflation coming down into 2026 in spite of tariffs. So when we look at the Fed, whether it cuts in December or next year, there are eight Fed meetings, and definitely end of Jan, there is another meeting where the Fed could cut. So I don't think we're really going to take a big note of the fact, yes, market sentiment will be affected if the Fed does not cut in December. However, we see the Fed path as loosening, we see rates coming lower, and that's very positive for risk assets. What would you say is the biggest worry for markets coming into December? We've spoken about the clarity on rates, of course, the clarity on data as well. There's tariffs. At the same time, we're looking at AI visibility too with Nvidia's earnings coming up. What's the biggest risk point or friction point for global equities? At the moment, the absolutely next big catalyst is Nvidia earnings. I think that goes without saying. Geopolitics seem to be somewhat in check. Russia, Ukraine carries on the conflict, and that does not seem to be at this point near a resolution. We're looking at Israel, Gaza, things are improving. So besides geopolitics, sentiment around rate cuts, but the absolutely next big catalyst is Nvidia earnings on the 19th of November, because there's been so much worry about the CapEx spend. It's about almost half a trillion dollars in 2026 from the big tech companies. Data center spend, which is estimated at around $7 trillion going into 2030. You've got all this CapEx spend going on, and at the fulcrum of all this is Nvidia, the world's most important high-end GPU manufacturer. They have been growing both revenue and earnings at a clip of 50%. That's slowing down. So whilst they've still got a massive revenue increase, a massive earnings increase, a large part of the revenue comes from data centers. So what Nvidia says in the earnings conference post their release, that's also super important. When we are looking at overall earnings growth within the US, that was a big catalyst which held up very well for the last quarter. But Nvidia is a large contributor to that earnings growth. Hence, it will be watched very closely.

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