India will not lower duties on smaller cars in a trade deal with U.S., says Abhijit Das, the author of Strategies in GATT and WTO. However, he explains why it's more likely than not that the two sides will agree on a deal.

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Donald Trump has signed an order to impose tariffs imports into the U.S. from countries including China, Mexico and Canada.

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India is not expected to lower tariffs on smaller or mid-range cars in its ongoing trade negotiations with the United States, according to Abhijit Das, an expert on international trade. While India may consider limited access for high-end automobiles through quotas, the domestic auto industry’s significant contribution to manufacturing makes broader tariff reductions unlikely.

The talks also face challenges in the steel sector, and India has recently preserved its right to retaliate against U.S. tariffs at the World Trade Organization. Despite these sticking points, Das believes both countries are likely to remain pragmatic and may eventually reach a trade agreement.

India won't lower smaller car tariffs in a U.S. trade deal: Expert

India may be prepared to offer limited access through tariff cuts and quotas on some select agricultural products. But there are some other contentious sticking points as well aren't there Abhijit. Not least of all auto components and steel. How are the negotiators going to get round those areas. Certainly these two areas of auto and steel are highly contentious. I would think that auto perhaps is more problematic given the fact that the auto industry in India contributes almost 50 percent of the manufacturing value added. So I don't see a possibility whereby India opens up its automobile market for the U.S. exports. What might happen as Parikshit said earlier is that India might consider very small quantities within which it might allow imports from U.S. But again these quotas would have to be for high end automobiles certainly not for smaller and mid range cars that I don't think is likely to happen. Do you think that conversation is going to be even more challenging given that barely two days ago India proposed retaliatory tariffs retaliatory duties at the WTO against U.S. tariffs on vehicles. Let's bear in mind that what India has done at the WTO is to preserve its rights to retaliate against the U.S. both in steel and auto sector in the future. It is not an automatic process whereby India will retaliate under the WTO rules. They are very clearly specified deadlines. If you miss those deadlines then you cannot retaliate. So India has merely preserved its right to retaliate. And I think this should enhance India's leverage in the negotiations with the U.S. There's clearly a lot of hard bargaining going on. Abhijit and India clearly has marked itself out as no pushover. In fact the negotiators have laid down these red lines surrounding agriculture. Piyush Goyal has said that they will not be swayed by deadline driven diktats and the national interest will be paramount. Is there a risk that both sides could just call it quits and walk away from the negotiating table for now at least. If the two sides continue with their entrance positions with their deep red lines and show little flexibility then yes that risk certainly is there. But overall I think the two sides are pragmatic. They may want to show flexibility. And let's also bear in mind that President Trump would be very keen to announce a deal. So that might impel or compel both the countries to move ahead in a spirit of cooperation and optimism that a deal would be possible. So to if I were a betting person I would say that possibility of a deal may be higher than the two sides walking off the negotiating table.

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India won't lower smaller car tariffs in a U.S. trade deal: Expert

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