AccuWeather's Jon Porter explains the history of hurricanes in the Northeast, including the Hurricane of 1938 that killed 700 people and caused an estimated $440 billion in damage and economic loss.

Meteorologists emphasize that the US Northeast is one of the most vulnerable regions for hurricanes and is currently overdue for a major tropical impact. Historical events such as the 1938 Long Island Express hurricane and Hurricane Bob in 1991 caused widespread devastation, with the 1938 storm bringing catastrophic winds and flooding across Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.

Experts estimate that if a storm similar to the 1938 hurricane were to strike today, it could result in up to $440 billion in damages and economic loss, surpassing even Hurricane Katrina's inflation-adjusted impact. The region typically experiences a hurricane every 15 to 20 years, but it has been over 30 years since the last significant event. Meteorologists stress the importance of preparedness, as the right atmospheric conditions could lead to another destructive storm in the future.

Hurricane history in the Northeast

John, you bring a deep and personal and professional insight into hurricane risks for the Northeast decades. Of course, of forecasting experience and you're here to explain why this region remains one of the most vulnerable and overdue for a significant tropical impact. So John, you grew up in Connecticut. Can you tell us what some of those impacts from the 1938 Long Island Express and Hurricane Bob in 1991 meant to you and how those events shaped your perspective on hurricane risks in the Northeast? Well, good morning. Let's start with the 1938 hurricane. That was the hurricane, really of record here across the coastal part of New England. I had tragic devastating impacts here across portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts as well. The storm made landfall as a Category three hurricane in Bellport, NY on Long Island and then rapidly raced to the north and east. It was moving at 50 to 55 mph. May moved up, made another landfall in the north and east as a Category three storm and brought destructive winds across much of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts over a wide area. Wind gusts to 100 mph or more for many hours on end and resulted in lots of property destruction. Now I heard a lot about this. Storm growing up because my grandfather Sebastian Cerrito. He was. He grew up in New London, Connecticut and he survived that hurricane. He was in that hurricane. Here's a picture of my grandfather. Many years ago and pop there in the middle. He told us many times about how that 1938 hurricane was. There was very little warning. They knew it was going to be a stormy day, but people were racing back to their homes because schools and work let out in the middle of the day and there were remember how pop would talk about that storm with the trees falling all around him and people were so thankful to have survived. That storm, of course, it was such a tragic loss of life associated with it, so it really was the storm of record that people remembered for generations. And of course there have been other impacts in New England as well, but that 38 storm not only brought that destructive wind, but it resulted in significant catastrophic flooding inland across parts of Connecticut up into Western Massachusetts and even northern New England. So it was a storm to be remembered for a long time. This kind of storm is going to happen again in New England. It's just a question of when, and that's why people have to be prepared. You think back to 1938 and destruction, but you and the team were able to come up with a number about what kind of damage that would be today. We looked at it, and if that same storm were to happen today, that storm would result in four could result in $440 billion of total damage and economic loss. And to put that into perspective, remember the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Katrina. Inflation adjusted around $325 billion, so you can see this would be a very significant impact in the Northeast. So we're going to go ahead and look at the numbers for the Northeast and accurate data shows the Northeast typically sees a hurricane every 15 to 20 years. It's been over 30 since Bob. Why do you and the team believe that this region is so overdue? Well, we're just concerned by looking at those numbers in those stats when you take a look at this graphic here, look at the storms that were in the in the 50s and 60s. And of course, Hurricane Gloria 1985 coming up through Connecticut and Bob in 1991. That's the most recent significant hurricane impact in New England, so it's overdue. And when you get the factors to come together in the right way, that can result in various serious serious impacts in New England. You talked about factors. What does it take to steer hurricane into the Northeast? Well, you've got to have it. It's it's a perfect setup that's required and you have to have a strong Bermuda high in place that direct storms further West toward the United States. A dip in the jet stream in the northeastern part of the United States that draws a storm up the coast and perhaps this is extremely important to you have to have an area of high pressure across. Eastern Canada that blocks the exit route of blocking area of high pressure. Then the storm has nowhere to go, but to make its way into the northeastern part of the United States. This is the recipe when these factors come together for hurricane hits in the northeastern part of the United States and these destructive storms from years past or why people treat hurricanes so significantly in the Northeast and it's important to prepare for them. So constantly be monitoring the Accuweather forecast all throughout the hurricane season so you can be best prepared and stay safe. For and know when to prepare across New England. Unfortunately, we're overdue for a significant impact there and another storm like the 38 hurricane can happen in the future. We need people to be aware of that. And be ready.

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