Ryan Detrick, Carson Group chief market strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss markets hitting record highs, being bullish and more.

Washington

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, expressed confidence in the US economy’s resilience, citing a strong recovery in equities and positive economic indicators. He pointed to factors such as stable inflation, robust consumer balance sheets, and increased corporate guidance as evidence that the economy is not on the verge of a recession.

Detrick acknowledged some weaknesses in the labor and housing markets but emphasized that overall conditions remain solid. He also noted that historical trends and recent data suggest continued market strength, with Carson Group maintaining an overweight position in equities for the foreseeable future.

Economy not heading into recession, says Carson Group's Ryan Detrick

And Ryan, I was struck at Goldman just tweaked their forecast for, you know, their Fed forecast for for rate cuts. Now they think we could get one in September because the inflation numbers on from tariff have been less dramatic than they expected. So all of a sudden you throw in there the possibility of a nearer term rate cut. I have to imagine that would contribute to a positive outlook on equities. Kelly, you're right. Thanks for having me back and happy Monday, everybody. And congrats on number six, Kelly. Good luck with all of that there. That's exciting. But you're right. I mean, there's a lot of reasons we've had one of the largest recoveries from a near bear market we've ever seen. And that's one of them. I mean, we the Carson Group, we've been on the camp the whole time. Inflation hasn't really been a problem. We thought the Fed should be coming early this year. We get it. They didn't. But the reality is we have the data, what we have. And I know the Fed is being cautious because of potential higher price with tariffs. But that's just another positive amongst a sea of positives, honestly, that we've been seeing for a while. We still will continue with this surprise summer rally. So why don't you think you. Yeah, my favorite little proxy is the CNN fear and greed index. And I checked Friday. It was in great territory. Maybe we're still there. Why doesn't that to you ring some alarm bells going, OK, some kind of reset pullback, negative news flow. Like we should expect something like that as the next move here. Well, there's a couple of reasons. I mean, listen, we know we gained over six percent the month of May for the S&P, maybe another five percent or so now. So that's a pretty stretched rubber band near term. But you mentioned sentiment. I get to travel the country, talk to advisers, talk to clients. It's not like people are saying, hey, Ryan, how high is this market going to go? Right. We are not hearing that, that a sentiment poll. I get the flaws with it, but there's still more bears than bulls. Right. We're just not seeing over the top optimism. And then just, you know, I would never say, Kelly, to invest in the calendar, just blindly on the calendar. But it is what it is. You're going to hear a lot about this. Listeners, July has been higher the last 10 years. July is also that which is the second longest ever. Eleven is the longest win streak ever for the month of July for stocks on the S&P 500. But in post-election years, July is the best month. The last 20 years, July is the best month. There are some reasons again. Why? Why July? Why July? Because earning season is a lot of people take vacations, low volume, but earning season. Earning season starts up on the 15th, I believe, with some of the big banks. I think once again, Kelly, maybe get some chop early in July. But then the realization this economy is better than everybody thought it was going to be three months ago. And that's going to push us higher probably again in the month of July. Right. So, in other words, for you, while all the seasonals and the calendar effects point in a positive direction, it ultimately comes back to the fact that the economy is hanging in there. Absolutely. You know, you look at what facts I just said a week ago. We saw a huge jump in actually S&P 500 companies that increased their guidance in the second quarter. You know, I mean, that's one thing. You know, you've got the durable goods orders last week. And I know a lot of that was because people are buying Boeing planes. But the reality, the economy slowing. Yes, there are some cracks in the labor market and the housing market. But the consumer to us, when we look at household balance sheets and different things, it's still solid. And this is an economy that's not going to go into recession the second half of this year, in our opinion. And historically, you know, when you have a good first half of a year, like it's crazy as I say, we're going to up 5 percent. It's going to have a pretty good second half. And we're not changing our tune. We've been overweight equities all year. Trust me, that wasn't easy the second week of April. But we still think it's opportunity for investors here.

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