James von Moltke CFO of Deutsche Bank speaks to CNBC's Annette Weisbach on his positive outlook for the German market.

Berlin

Deutsche Bank's Chief Financial Officer has observed a positive shift in the German financial sector, noting a significant rebound in deal making and IPO activity. The bank reported strong performance in fixed income markets and credit trading, with the leveraged capital market recovering after a slow period. 

The CFO attributed the earlier slowdown to policy uncertainty but indicated that market confidence and liquidity are now supporting growth. He also highlighted the anticipated impact of fiscal expansion and the initial steps towards structural reforms in Germany, including investments in infrastructure and changes to benefits and labor conditions.

Deutsche Bank CFO: German deal making is coming back

I think it's been a relatively positive environment for the industry. The standout performance, of course, is in our case, fixed income markets, which was up 19% year on year, and we were certainly able to participate, support clients in what were I think consistently engaged market environments through a third quarter, which isn't always the case. We had strong macro performance and also credit trading had strength in the quarter. So that has been a real feature of the quarter and in macro for the full year. Do you also see like a pickup in M&A, origination, like we've seen recently at least here, at least in Germany, a pickup also in IPO activity. So do you think the markets are coming back? It's coming back. And it's something we've been calling for for a while, but it's been delayed. And there's no question that the sort of policy uncertainty of the first half chilled some of what we think of as these financing and M&A transactions, but it's coming back strongly now in the third into the fourth quarter as well. We saw that in our businesses, especially leveraged at capital market, recovered from a very slow second quarter. But as you say, M&A is picking up and the equity market, the IPO market essentially reopened in the third quarter, all of which I think is positive, both in the rear view mirror, but also looking forward. In general, when we talk about markets, I think people are watching out for the next big thing, which could actually trigger a sort of a sell off in the market space. What do you think, where could it come from? Is it more the credit space? Is it the AI hype? What do you think? Well, look, I think people are watching three things carefully. One is obviously interest rates. The second is, is there a credit cycle or a bubble having been blown because more supply has come into the credit markets? And third, of course, the dependency, whatever that is, on the AI boom that we're seeing. I think it's hard to judge, frankly, whether any of those would trip up the market. And it tends to be things you don't anticipate, to be honest, that create these environments. What we see right now is very solid, if you like, underpinnings of the market in terms of the availability of capital, liquidity out there, investor confidence, and a sense that the economies, despite some of the policy uncertainty we saw this year, are positioned to grow going forward. Obviously, in Europe, we have the benefit of fiscal expansion here in Germany, but we're seeing that sort of echoed in the European economies that I think are set to accelerate next year and into 2026 and 2027. If you mention it, let's talk a little bit about that fiscal expansion in Germany, because it's not yet here and people are getting nervous when it actually comes and whether there will be structural reforms as well, combined with the spending. So what's your assessment and your hopes as well? Well, we're confident that the spending will happen and the investment and reinvestment in Germany will happen. And you're actually going to begin to see that now in the fourth quarter. Some of the defense allocations have been made in the budget and the decisions have been made around especially infrastructure going into 2026. And so we think that wave is starting. What we've been calling for and are now beginning to see is what you'd think of as structural reform that can then help Germany, if you like, leverage the fiscal expansion. And that's in things like benefits, in pensions, hopefully over time in labor conditions, permitting regimes and what have you. And so we're seeing the beginnings of momentum there as well.

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Breakdown