AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish dives into the details of the forecast for Hurricane Melissa and how it will affect Cuba and the Bahamas after slamming into Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa has made a historic landfall in southwest Jamaica, matching the intensity of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys. The storm has been notable for its slow movement, taking a week to traverse the central Caribbean, and has recorded the slowest average forward speed for a hurricane in the region.

Forecasts indicate that after interacting with Jamaica and eastern Cuba, Melissa may weaken slightly before restrengthening over open water near the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. Computer models suggest the storm could impact Bermuda with strong winds and high waves, and there remains uncertainty about whether a trough could steer the system toward the Canadian Maritimes or out to sea.

Breaking down Hurricane Melissa's forecast for impacts after Jamaica

Well, this is indeed a historic day in the Caribbean for the Atlantic Basin as a whole, as we have tied the record with the Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys in 1935, matching the intensity of that storm with landfall in southwest Jamaica today. And with our forecast feed, we want to take a look at the continual impacts this will bring. We're going to go behind the curtain a little bit, look at some computer models as to the impacts for the rest of the Caribbean in places like, well, we're looking at areas still around Haiti with some winds, kind of inflow bands on the southeast side of the storm. We'll look at the impacts into Cuba and other parts of the Bahamas and even Bermuda as well. A quick look at the current status of the storm. You can see that the eye has closed off, and that's not a surprise after interacting with land in the mountains here across Jamaica. The center of the storm has bisected the western side of Jamaica, but again, at the beginning of this loop, you can see its status when it made landfall, a fierce, fierce storm. This storm has been very notable in so many different ways. It's been with us for a full week, and it's taken a week to go from an area south, due south of Punta Cana, now to an area along the north coast of Jamaica. This deep purple shows us the hurricane-force wind and the path that that has taken. Very, very slow movement. Sometimes it just takes a day for a storm, a fast-moving tropical wave to go from point A to point B. This has taken a week, and again, meteorologist Mike Dahl here at AccuWeather, he's a wizard with data, and he calculated this storm, as of yesterday, had the slowest average forward speed for any named storm or hurricane, I should say, hurricane, in the central Caribbean by a pretty good margin, and it actually slowed down after this stat was captured for a bit, and then it began to speed up a little bit, and now we've seen movement at 7 to 10 miles per hour for much of the late afternoon. Category 4 hurricane at this point, we're looking at landfall late tonight into early tomorrow morning as a Category 3 storm, and then we have some questions. I'm going to move into the models here in a moment, but some questions as to could this be absorbed by a trough? If this trough is oriented just a little more negatively, that would scoop it up and kind of sling it into parts of the Canadian Maritimes. If it's oriented precisely as we have this drawn, then the more likely scenario will be that it is guided out to sea, maybe a little more likely to take the eastern part of that track. Now, let's take a look at the models here, and I wanted to point out a couple of things here with the way this AccuWeather Professional site works here with the models. Near the center of low pressure, you can see a little plot, 966 millibars is what the model, this is the European, is forecasting. If that number increases, it's a weakening storm. If it strengthens, if the number drops, it's a strengthening storm. We're going to see some land interaction, and it goes from 966 to 971 by Wednesday morning. Inevitably, we'll see a little bit of weakening over the mountains of eastern and southeastern Cuba. Then we go from 971 to 965, that's restrengthening on the north side of Cuba. The land of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, very different from the Greater Antilles. The Greater Antilles have big mountains. In Jamaica, Haiti, we talked about an 8,700 foot mountain peak, 2,500 feet higher than anything in the eastern U.S., even higher than Mount Washington. As we take a look at the area around the southeastern Bahamas, we've got some small, scrappy islands that are low profile, no big mountains. The larger islands, like the Abacos and Grand Bahama, they're way west of this storm. Thankfully, also Nassau, by the way, this is Nassau here, I'm going to circle it. That's where about 280,000 people live. That's the bulk of the population of the Bahamas, then another 30,000 or so up into this area. There are some people who live down into Provo and parts of the Turks and Caicos and small settlements within the eastern Bahamas, but you'll notice 963, 970, 970, 970. There is going to be some restrengthening, 971 to 963, they will restrengthen some after crossing the islands. I'm going to take you somewhere else here, looking at top wind gusts. Take a look at this. These are in knots. Now, the European model, probably going to under-represent the fiercest localized winds. These numbers are just plotted near larger cities, and you can see a 79 knot plot, also a 99 knot plot for the present time. Those are knots, so we're looking at 99 becoming about 115 miles per hour, 79 hedging closer to about 92, 93 mile per hour knots. I'm going to zoom it out a little bit. I wanted to grab one of these, look at this, an 80 knot forecast for wind gusts in Bermuda. That would be about mid-90s, 93, 94 mile per hour wind gusts there in Bermuda. There's still going to be some trouble with this. Let's take a look at the WaveWatch model. This is the WaveWatch 3 here, your tax dollars at work, kind of a cool thing here. You can see the wave heights, and you get into the reds, that means open water. We could see wave heights 20 to 30 feet, and that's going to be a huge story. 30 to 50 feet way out over the open water. By the way, we do have some disturbed weather with storm system number two off the east coast of the U.S., as we're going to be facing some waves of 12 feet plus off to the east side of the Outer Banks. Two more homes came into the water earlier this week, earlier today, in fact, in the Outer Banks. We've got to keep an eye out. Perhaps, perhaps this trough could absorb our storm and sling some wind and rain into the Canadian Maritimes. And that is your forecast feed.

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