Maya MacGuineas, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the cost of President Trump's Big, Beautiful Bill.

Washington

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, analyzed the impact of President Trump's recently passed budget bill, describing it as a 'budget buster' likely to increase US national debt. While short-term economic growth is expected due to stimulus effects, MacGuineas emphasized that no credible estimates suggest the bill will generate enough growth over a decade to offset its fiscal burden.

She noted that although tax cuts can stimulate the economy, the additional borrowing required by the bill will ultimately outweigh these benefits, further deteriorating the fiscal situation. Markets may respond positively in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains concerning, with projections indicating persistent high deficits.

'Big, beautiful bill' price tag

As our next guest says, the bill is a budget buster and we won't be able to hide the new debt from the bond markets. Maya McGinnis is president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. So Maya, what's interesting is in May and June, as the bill was getting closer to passage, the 10-year yield actually fell, which I thought was notable. What do you make of that? Well, there are a lot of different factors that are going on right now. So this reconciliation bill that just passed that's going to add the debt is definitely going to make markets nervous and they will be less reassured about the fiscal situation. But at the same time, markets want tax cuts. People who are engaged in markets want tax cuts. And there are a lot of other factors affecting all of this, primarily tariff policy. So we can't look at the markets and interpret one thing, but higher borrowing does not reassure the Treasury market. Yeah, I just thought, you know, so, you know, stocks are at all-time highs, you know, bond yields are a little bit higher today. I don't know if that's a tariff or factor because of the bill. There was a Washington economist who put out a note this morning where he was saying, you know, the fiscal picture might actually be starting to brighten and maybe the market is sniffing that out a little bit, you know, that we could actually, especially if you throw in tariff revenue, like we're talking about, he thinks we could be headed to 4.5%, 5% budget deficits, which is practically, you know, worth celebrating these days. But I know that the projections based right now are saying 7%, 8% and so forth. But a lot of that depends on the trajectory of rates, what happens with the economy, and 20% of the bill is paid for itself through growth anyway. So I think the big question is, what time period are you looking at? In the short term, we will see higher growth, as you always do, through stimulus and what could be seen as a sugar high. We are going to have higher growth in the short run if you look at just the effects of the bill. But when people are talking about, don't worry, the growth from this bill is going to fix our fiscal problems or it's a first start, you need to look over a longer period. And there is absolutely no credible estimator across the board who thinks that this bill will generate enough growth over a 10-year period to do anything other than contribute to a deteriorating fiscal situation. Even if you look at the dynamic scores for some, it shows the situation's worse when you look at the growth effects. The reason is tax cuts help grow the economy, extra borrowing harms the economy. And our debt is now so high that the additional effects from the higher borrowing in this bill will actually, by many accounts, worsen things more than the growth would improve things. But you've got to look over the long term. The short term, we'll see a boost in growth. Unfortunately, that will not be sustained.

Police blocked roads in a show of force to deter anti-government marchers from the deserted streets of Kenya's usually bustling capital on Monday, with small groups of protesters clashing with officers on Nairobi's outskirts.

Nairobi

Water cannon and whips: Police in Nairobi clash with protesters

President Donald Trump's Justice Department and FBI released a memo concluding that there is no evidence Jeffrey Epstein had a "client list." The FBI confirmed that more than 1,000 victims were harmed by Epstein.

FBI: Epstein investigation turned up no 'incriminating client list'

The death toll from the devastating floods in Texas has risen to at least 90 as rescue workers continue to search for dozens of missing people. At least 27 campers and counselors at Camp Mystic in central Texas died in the floods.

Kerrville

At least 90 people killed in Texas floods

A shooter is dead after opening fire at a U.S. Border Patrol building in McAllen, Texas, a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said. CBS News' Shanelle Kaul has the latest updates.

McAllen

Shooter killed after opening fire at U.S. Border Patrol building

Israel’s military launched airstrikes early on Monday targeting ports and facilities held by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The strikes followed a suspected Houthi attack on a ship in the Red Sea.

Sana'a

Middle East Conflict

Israel strikes Yemen ports held by Houthi rebels

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet with U.S. President Trump at the White House on Monday. The two leaders are expected to discuss the ongoing conflict in Gaza and a potential ceasefire with Hamas.

Netanyahu set to meet Trump at White House amid ceasefire optimism

U.S. President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on global tariffs announced in April is nearing its expiration, and the White House warned that steeper tariffs could roll out at the beginning of August.

Global Tariffs

White House warns higher tariffs could roll out August 1

Erin Patterson, the Australian woman accused of killing three relatives with a meal of death cap mushrooms baked in a Beef Wellington lunch, has been found guilty of three counts of murder and the attempted murder of the lone survivor.

Morwell

Australian woman found guilty in ‘mushroom murder’ trial

Camp Mystic, an all-girls summer camp along the Guadalupe River, has confirmed that at least 27 campers and counselors died in the devastating floods that hit the Texas camp.

Hunt

Camp Mystic confirms 27 campers, counselors killed in floods

President Donald Trump called Elon Musk's plans to form a new political party "ridiculous," launching new barbs at the tech billionaire.

Trump criticizes Musk's new 'America Party' as feud grows

Rescuers are searching for more than 40 people still missing, after flooding in the US state of Texas. The death toll has risen to at least 82, including 28 children - many of them from a summer camp. President Donald Trump has declared the area a disaster zone.

Death toll from Texas floods rises to 82, dozens still missing

BRICS leaders set to discuss key global political issues, but questions over the bloc’s cohesion arose as Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin opted to skip the summit.

State of Rio de Janeiro

BRICS group slams tariffs, Iran conflict at summit in Brazil

The search for missing children from a girls' summer camp hit by flash floods in Texas entered a third day on Sunday, as rescuers faced the threat of more flooding and the death toll in the region reached at least 67.

Texas officials face questions over flood warnings

Search and rescue missions continue in Kerr County, Texas, after severe storms caused deadly flooding that has killed dozens of people. More than 20 children from the nearby Camp Mystic are still missing, officials say.

Texas campground owner describes flash floods: "It was just chaos"

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says he has formed a new political party after falling out with U.S. President Donald Trump over the "One Big Beautiful Bill."

Elon Musk launches 'American Party'

Israel has sent a delegation to Qatar for new indirect talks on a possible hostage and ceasefire deal despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying the changes requested by Hamas to a previous proposal were "unacceptable."

Doha

Israel, Hamas delegations resume truce talks over Gaza in Doha

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei received an enthusiastic welcome at a mosque in Tehran as he made his first public appearance since the start of the 12-day war between Israel and Iran.

Tehran

Iran's Supreme Leader makes first public appearance since war started

Search-and-rescue operations are expected to continue as the death toll continues to rise from Friday's flash flooding in central Texas, with authorities confirming at least 50 deaths so far, 15 of those children. Among the missing are girls from a Christian summer camp.

Death toll rises as search for Texas flood survivors continues

Rescuers are searching for survivors of a flash flood that hit central Texas on Friday, leaving at least 43 people dead, including 15 children. Authorities in Texas are now facing questions about whether they issued proper warnings in advance of rain-fuelled flooding.

Death toll from Texas flooding rises to 43

Experts link the rising frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Europe to climate change, warning that such extreme weather events are becoming increasingly common.

Athens

Firefighters across Europe battle wildfires

Rallies on the streets of Tel Aviv were held as the Israeli security cabinet reportedly gathered to discuss Hamas' response to a potential ceasefire-hostage deal.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

Tel Aviv rally calls for the release of the remaining hostages

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday (July 5) that his latest conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump this week was the best and "most productive" he has had to date.

Kyiv

Ukraine Invasion

Zelenskyy says latest Trump call the 'most productive' yet

The unemployment rate for new college graduates has recently surged. Economists say businesses are now replacing entry-level jobs with artificial intelligence. Ali Bauman has the story.

Cambridge

Unemployment surges as employers replace new hires with AI

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he is sending a delegation to Qatar on Sunday for talks on a possible ceasefire deal. Hamas calls the latest response "positive." Meanwhile, Israeli strikes on Saturday killed at least 14 in Gaza.

Renewed momentum for Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza

The deadline is fast approaching for countries to make new tariff agreements with the U.S. or face a higher rate. The Trump administration is putting them on notice.

Trump turns attention to trade after major legislative win

The funeral proceedings of the late football players Diogo Jota and his brother Andre Silva took place in the church of Gondomar in their hometown in the east of Porto. Family members, teammates and coaches joined thousands of mourners to pay their final respects.

Gondomar

Thousands gather to bid farewell to Liverpool's Diogo Jota

McMahon's most recent projects included Netflix's whodunit "The Residence" and the Nicolas Cage drama "The Surfer," which premiered earlier in the year at SXSW.

Melbourne

Australian-American actor Julian McMahon dies, 56

Diplomatic efforts are ongoing as U.S President Donald Trump looks to secure a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Israel has previously accepted the US proposal, meanwile Hamas has "submitted a positive response" to the mediators.

Israeli hostage negotiation team to fly to Doha to hold talks with Hamas

A forestry worker injured in a wildfire in the western Turkish province of Izmir has died from his injuries, raising the death toll in recent days from the fires to three, as emergency crews also continued to battle a blaze in a province bordering Syria.

Hatay

Turkiye’s wildfires declared national emergency

Search and rescue operations continued overnight after flash floods slammed central Texas, killing dozens, officials said. More than 20 children are still missing from Camp Mystic, an all-girls camp hit by the floods, the Kerr County sheriff said.