AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network to discuss what's going on in the tropics following Chantal.

AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, discussed the recent activity in the Atlantic hurricane season, noting that three named storms have already occurred, which is ahead of the historical average. Despite this active start, current atmospheric conditions such as high levels of dust from Africa and strong wind shear are expected to suppress further tropical development in the Atlantic for at least the next week or two.

Experts indicate that any potential storm development in the near term is most likely to occur close to the United States, particularly in the northeastern Gulf or off the southeast coast, where conditions may be more favorable. However, the overall outlook remains quiet, with no immediate threats expected in the tropical Atlantic.

Atlantic to stay quiet after Chantal

I want to bring in our AccuWeather hurricane, our lead hurricane expert, Alex DeSilva. You know, Alex, was it about two weeks ago, we didn't have one named storm, then in a blink of an eye, a snap of a finger, all of a sudden, three named storms, all tropical storms. Yeah, we're certainly starting to really check those names off the list here, and when we put our forecast out in March, we were really saying that we were concerned about early season tropical development, now that can be June or July, so right at the beginning of the hurricane season, and lo and behold, here we are, we've already had three names checked off the list already, Dexter would be the next name coming up on the list here, so it's been quite an active start to the 2025 hurricane season. And just to provide some context, Alex, we do have, of course, historical averages here, we typically don't see that third named storm until August 3rd. Yeah, we're about a month ahead of schedule for that third named storm, like you just said, but look at the hurricane, the hurricane we typically don't have until August 11th, so we usually go about two whole months into the tropical season, and into the third month without seeing a hurricane, and of course, we have not seen our first hurricane yet. And of course, we always talk about in the month of June and July, homegrown development, that is development close to the United States, and there's a reason for that. Yeah, there certainly is, June and July typically have the most dust across the tropical Atlantic, coming across from Africa, we've even seen reports of the dust coming all the way across into southern Florida, into Texas, into Louisiana so far this year, so so far this year has seen a lot of dust coming across the Atlantic, a lot of wind shear in the Caribbean and in the eastern Atlantic as well, so I think for at least the next week or two, we're not going to be seeing anything out in the tropical Atlantic. But of course, it's homegrown development, which means we always look close to the United States, and what do we look for? Any dips in the jet stream that are coming southward toward the Gulf of America, or the southeast coast of the United States, and the middle part of next week, now this dip in the jet stream doesn't seem as strong as its predecessor that produced Chantal, but this is the pattern that has us slightly concerned. Yeah, it certainly is, I think if there's going to be development anywhere in the basin over the next probably two weeks, it's got to be in this area here. There's just too much hostile winds, there's too much dry air elsewhere across the basin. The northeastern Gulf, or just off the southeast coast, there's a chance that there's a little pocket of lower wind shear and the waters are very warm. You get that dip in the jet stream like you mentioned, you get a little bit of spin working in there, similar to Chantal, with a little bit of spin at the end of a cold front, and then you can get development. Now the question is, which side of the peninsula is that going to happen on? That's yet to be determined, but these are the areas that I think we're going to have to watch toward the middle of July. AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early, Alex.

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