AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Aug. 5 to discuss the latest on the tropics.

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AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert, Alex De Silva, notes that the Atlantic hurricane season is progressing slightly ahead of historical averages, with the fourth named tropical system already recorded. While no hurricanes have formed yet, meteorologists are closely monitoring an area off the southeast coast of the United States that could bring significant rainfall and potential flash flooding in the coming days.

Additionally, several tropical waves are emerging from Africa, moving across the Atlantic. Although these systems currently face unfavorable conditions such as wind shear and dry air, there is a high chance of development as they move into more conducive environments. Experts emphasize the importance of monitoring these systems as the season enters a more active phase.

Watching the tropics

Joining us right now is Accuweather lead hurricane expert, Alex De Silva. And Alex, I know maybe some people are feeling it's been a slow start to the hurricane season. But when we look at kind of what's considered normal with historical averages as far as number of storms, we're right. Actually, we're a little bit early. Yeah, by the numbers, we're actually a little bit ahead of schedule. We just had our fourth named tropical system right now. And the average for the fourth named one is August 15th. Now, the first hurricane we usually don't see till August 11th. So we haven't seen one yet, but we might hear in the next couple of weeks as it looks like the tropics are really going to be picking up here. They certainly are. That might even be an understatement, Alex, because we have a lot that we are watching. Break it down for us. We have homegrown development and tropical waves to watch. Yeah, there's a lot going on on this map. So I'll draw your attention to the one of most concern or the one of, you know, up up first, essentially. It's the area off the southeast coast. This is the area that's like first up on the list of concerns. This one could impact the southeast August 7th to the 9th. So this is the one that we're most concerned about in the short term and then a little bit longer term. We're looking mainly out in the Atlantic. A couple of tropical waves getting ready to come. One already came off of Africa, and the next one will be coming off in a couple of days. We're getting into that type of time of the season where we really have to watch these waves closely. Yeah, this is really kind of the pivotal point. We've been only looking at homegrown development thus far. So take us through what we're seeing on satellite. This is one of the more immediate things that we're watching. Yeah, this is for the southeast coast feature here. So got a little area of spin here north of Hispaniola. This is going to be moving into the southeast and essentially joining forces with a stationary front that's draped across the southeast. That, I think, is going to cause pressures to lower over the next couple of days. We're probably going to get some sort of development down there, whether that be a tropical depression or a low end tropical storm. But it looks like it's going to be bringing a lot of rain to portions of the southeast by late week. Yeah, either way, that impact to be on the lookout for. It's the rain. It's the flash flooding, which, of course, we've already been seeing. Now, Alex, there's a couple of factors that we look at when we're seeing, OK, how likely is this to develop? Let's talk about the warm ocean waters first. Yeah, look at all this orange and all this red on the map here. This is sea surface temperature anomalies. So essentially what that is, it's how warm or how cool it is from average. And so everywhere where you see these darker colors, these darker orange and yellows indicate temperatures above average. And so that's why we're concerned that we could see some development here over the next couple of days, because the waters are so warm, especially right off the east coast. That's where we have the Gulf Stream waters that go right up along the east coast. Those waters are even warmer. And so that is really the concern is that this could try to get organized. We don't expect this to become a hurricane or anything like that, but it could get organized into a depression or a tropical storm. And that just means it will be able to bring even more rainfall to portions of the southeast. Yeah, we all know even a tropical storm, it can bring some big impacts. All right. Let's talk about those tropical waves that we're watching. Yeah, one is way out just near the Cabo Verde Islands, just emerged off of Africa yesterday morning. It's going to be moving west across the Atlantic Basin. It's got some hurdles to overcome. It's got some shear. It's got some dry air that it's going to have to overcome. But by the end of by next week, we do think that there's actually going to be a high chance of tropical development as this comes across the Atlantic Basin. Looks like it will turn to the north, though, and should move north of the islands. Yeah, at all. It relates to the Bermuda High, but it also relates to wind shear. That's something we're watching closely to see if really anything develops with all of these. Yeah, this is why we don't expect anything to develop here in the near term. We do have a high risk of development, but it's several days from now. And that's because it's in a pretty hostile environment right now. There's a lot of shear, a lot of dry air that it's dealing with right now. But over the weekend into next week, I think it's going to get into a slightly better environment for intensification. And then we could see some slow organization from there. All right. Accuweather lead hurricane expert Alex Da Silva. Thank you again for joining us.

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