The U.S. military aid package for Ukraine expected to finally pass this week is a potential game changer. But that battlefield impact could take some time, with Russian troops still far outnumbering Ukraine's.

Kyiv

Russian forces have invaded Ukraine from land, air and sea with strikes causing widespread damage. Global leaders have condemned the move and imposed sanctions.

Ukraine Invasion

The United States is in the process of finalizing a significant military aid package for Ukraine, valued at $61 billion. This package, aimed at bolstering Ukraine's efforts against Russian forces, faces expectations of changing the dynamics on the battlefield. However, its impact may not be immediate. Ukrainian forces, especially the artillery units near the eastern town of Kupyansk, are in acute need of this assistance to address shortages in ammunition and weaponry that have hampered their operations.

A Ukrainian soldier, known by the call sign "Sailor," highlighted the critical situation on the ground, pointing out that the lack of shells has severely limited Ukraine's ability to provide covering fire for its infantry, resulting in the loss of both lives and territory. The aid, which arrives after half a year of discussion in Congress, is anticipated to replenish Ukraine's depleted stocks of weapons and air defenses, potentially improving their defensive capabilities against a major Russian offensive.

Despite the forthcoming aid, Ukraine confronts significant challenges, including manpower shortages and concerns over the robustness of its frontline defense. A new mobilization law, expected to be implemented, will hasten the induction of civilian draftees, who will, however, require extensive training before being battle-ready. This gap in preparedness could offer strategic advantages to Russian forces, which have been advancing slowly, leveraging their superior numbers and artillery strength.

Russian military advancements include the capture of Avdiivka in February and ongoing efforts to seize the strategically located town of Shasiv Yar. Success in these endeavors could position Moscow closer to the remaining Kiev-held cities in the Donbass region. The disparity in firepower and manpower is stark, with Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, noting that Russian forces can outmatch Ukraine's artillery fire by ten times and potentially outnumber them substantially in personnel in the eastern conflict zones.

In addition to U.S. aid, Ukraine anticipates receiving EU assistance and military hardware, including F-16 fighter jets from the U.S. later in the year, and a commitment from a Czech-led initiative to deliver around 300,000 rounds of artillery shells starting June. These contributions are seen as crucial to Ukraine's efforts to prevent a major Russian territorial breakthrough in the coming year.



U.S. aid may buy time for Ukraine but more troops needed

Ukraine's exhausted artillery gunners holding off Russian forces near the eastern town of Kupyansk are hoping for a lifeline. The latest USAID package could be it, a potential game-changer for Kiev's forces. But it could take some time. One soldier, whose call sign is Sailor, says a shortage of shells has reduced Ukraine's covering fire for its infantrymen, costing lives and territory. If they had passed the aid package bill earlier, we would have lost a bit less ground. We could have maybe taken back some ground. The $61 billion aid package comes after six months of congressional wrangling. It could replenish Kiev's critically low stocks of weaponry and air defences, and likely improve its chances of averting a major Russian breakthrough in the east. It's better now if we let them attack and we defend. But when the package will be a done deal, and we get the shells, drones and whatever else, then we do a 180-degree turn, gather our reserve forces and attack. We'll have our aviation with us, as it will be effective. Kiev still faces manpower shortages on the battlefield and questions about the strength of its sprawling front line, ahead of a potential Russian summer offensive. After months of political debates, a new, faster mobilisation law takes effect in May. But new civilian draftees will require months of training, which some analysts say could become a window of opportunity for Russia to exploit. Russia has been slowly advancing, with its superior troop numbers and artillery, since capturing Avdiivka in February, a long-time bastion town in the eastern Donbass region. They are now bearing down on the town of Shasiv Yar, which is located on high ground. If captured, that win would bring Moscow closer to the remaining Kiev-held Donbass cities of Konstiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. President Volodymyr Zelensky says Russian forces are able to fire 10 times more artillery rounds than Ukraine's troops. One of his generals estimates Russian forces outnumber Kiev's troops by as much as 10 times in the east. Ukrainian positions have been pounded this year, thanks to Russian air superiority and Ukraine's dwindling defences. One former Ukrainian defence minister said US-produced F-16 fighter jets, which Kiev expects to receive later this year, would force Russian warplanes back entirely. EU assistance from June will include a Czech-led initiative to supply some 300,000 rounds of artillery shells. A senior European security source told Reuters optimistically that if Ukraine receives the new international assistance, the chances of averting a major Russian breakthrough over the next year are quite high.

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Ukraine Invasion