Oil rose after OPEC+ confirmed it will stick with plans to pause production hikes during the first quarter, while traders weighed the fallout from President Donald Trump's rhetoric around Venezuela.

Washington

Oil prices have risen after OPEC+ announced a pause in output increases for the first quarter of 2026, citing weaker seasonal market conditions and concerns about a potential record oil glut. The decision follows a year of rapid supply returns and comes after four consecutive months of oil price declines.

Market uncertainty was further heightened by President Trump's recent statements regarding Venezuela, including the announcement of a no-fly zone and increased US activity near Venezuelan waters. Trump later downplayed the significance of his comments, but the ambiguity has contributed to volatility in oil markets.

Oil rises after OPEC+ pause and Trump’s Venezuela remarks

Give us some more details there, Nick, in terms of what's behind OPEC's decision to pause output in the first quarter of 2026. You've said it already, Tom. I think the short version is that OPEC is trying to reflect weaker seasonal market conditions. That's the official reason that they've provided for why they're not adding more supply back to the market. I think the other deeper level is also to say seasonal market conditions aside, the oil market is headed for a record glut moving into 2026. So as we end the year where OPEC has spent most of it returning barrels at breakneck speed, surprising expectations early in the year, December has come as a time to take stock and figure out what comes next. And I think we're recognising not just OPEC, but the market more broadly, that with so much supply coming online, maybe continuing to add at a breakneck pace may not be the best strategy. So this comes as a time for them to take stock. And that's why we're seeing a little bit of caution from OPEC and prices coming up as a result. Yeah, after four straight months of losses in terms of oil prices through to November, President Trump been talking about Venezuela, then we know they've been ratcheting up the pressure. What have we been hearing from the president, Nick, and how has that been impacting the oil markets? That's a really good point, Tom. It's still a wild card coming out of the White House. I think the short version really is that things are clear as mud. So over the weekend, Trump has already flagged that he's calling a no-fly zone in Venezuela. And we already know that there's been some aggression coming out of the US with regard to ships in the area over in Venezuelan waters. And so a no-fly zone is the kind of thing you call when you're tempted to increase aggression, potentially even move on to a land sort of like behaviour. So I think that's part of the uncertainty that's making people nervous. And Venezuela is a major oil supplier. So anything that could stand to impact the supply would be bullish for markets. I will add one more note of double caution. After posting that, Trump has also added that he's actually downplaying the impact of his own social media posts and saying that, hey, actually, don't take what I've said earlier too seriously. So as I've said, clear as mud. And that uncertainty is definitely weighing into oil prices today.

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Breakdown