The National Hurricane Center now has its eyes on a tropical wave over 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It has a shot to be the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

Basseterre

Meteorologists are closely monitoring a new tropical system forming east of the Caribbean. The system currently has a 10% chance of further development over the next two days, with the probability increasing slightly to 20% over the next week. Water temperatures in the region are favorable for storm development, though wind shear in the Caribbean may limit intensification.

Forecast models indicate the system could potentially move through the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean. Experts advise residents in the region to stay prepared and update their hurricane preparedness kits, as the situation may evolve.

New tropical area to watch east of the Caribbean

We've got a couple of areas that we're watching one in the Pacific, and that is right along the Intertropical Convergence Zone. And look here, you're seeing the same thing going on in the Atlantic. And I will tell you this is where we like to see things form and take that in the spirit of which it's intended. What I mean is you'd rather have it form out here or out here. Then closer to the islands right in the middle of the Caribbean, off the eastern seaboard, or somewhere in the Gulf. You want to have it out here. And the reason why is because we've got time to watch it. We've got time to prepare and let me tell you if you do or won't get plans to go to the grocery store today. It's always a time where you can replenish those hurricane preparedness kits. Now with this particular system, we've got a 10% chance of further development over the next two days. However, you extrapolate the time. Seven days we go up not much, but 20% chance I'd like to see a 0% chance of it, but right now 20% is what we expect in the long term. Water temperatures there favorable. You got him out there in the 80s, but you get to the Gulf or certainly off the southeastern coast. You've got them a lot, a lot higher and in parts of, say, the Caribbean there. Mighty warm, but in the Caribbean you also have quite a bit of sheer. We follow a couple models support some low level spin. You'll find the euro model brings that center of circulation, possibly through the lesser Antilles in by Friday, about to move into the Caribbean. There you go. Where could enter encounter that cheer?

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Breakdown