Former U.S. Ambassador Douglas Silliman discuss how both Trump and Netanyahu may use the Iran strikes as political leverage, while deep divisions over Gaza and Iran’s nuclear future leave ceasefire prospects uncertain.

Jerusalem

Israel and Iran have agreed a ceasefire after a twelve day conflict. Meanwhile, Israel strikes in Gaza continue with the humanitarian crisis deepening.

Middle East Conflict

Former U.S. Ambassador Douglas Silliman analyzed the political strategies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former U.S. President Donald Trump in the context of recent joint Israeli-U.S. military actions against Iran. Silliman suggested that Netanyahu may view these actions as a political victory, while Trump's position remains less clear, with ongoing divisions in the U.S. about the best approach to Iran.

The interview also addressed the persistent deadlock in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, with both sides maintaining irreconcilable positions. Silliman noted that returning Israeli hostages could benefit Netanyahu politically, especially ahead of upcoming elections, but warned that continued conflict in Gaza could undermine such gains.

Netanyahu eyes political win amid Middle East turmoil: Ambassador

I think for Bibi Netanyahu, it is quite likely that regime change is the goal. For Donald Trump, I have to be honest, I'm not entirely sure. One of the questions that I had throughout his first term was whether he was in the regime change camp or just the behavior change camp. There is a real division within the Republican Party and people who support the president over which of these two solutions would be better for American interests. The party, and I think the president, have not yet been able to come to a conclusion on that. The fact that Trump has offered negotiations to Massoud Pazashtian, the president of Iran and the Iranian regime, might lead me to indicate that he is willing to deal with this regime if they are willing to take steps to walk back the nuclear program, agree to get rid of nuclear enrichment, and probably also have some control on the militias that they have sponsored in the region and perhaps also some sort of discussion of their missile regime. So Douglas, what are the implications then for Bibi Netanyahu's meeting with Donald Trump in the wake of this joint Israeli-U.S. assault last month on Iran's nuclear facilities? Is that going to be viewed as something of a victory lap and therefore the prospects for a ceasefire settlement for the people of Gaza are looking increasingly bleaker if this plays into the strategy of Prime Minister Netanyahu, which is total victory over Hamas? Well, I think in terms of Iran, I think that they're going to take a victory lap and talk about the joint Israeli and American attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and Trump will say that they obliterate the facilities and Netanyahu will say they did great damage to the program and they will pat each other on the back and move forward with that. I do not know whether the Iran military victory or political victory as well will help much on negotiating with Hamas. The real problem in the negotiations between Hamas and Israel for months and months has been that Netanyahu has insisted on a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of all of the remaining Israeli hostages. Hamas has insisted that any release of hostages or any ceasefire must be the end of hostilities and there must be an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. These have been up to this point irreconcilable positions and I think that it's going to be difficult. It's going to be quite difficult for both the United States and Qatar as the intermediary in Doha to bridge this difference. I think that Donald Trump would like to get a ceasefire. Donald Trump would like to have a role in getting all of the Israeli hostages back to Israel out of the hands of Hamas so that he can claim another political victory and I think that's what he will be aiming for. As would Benjamin Netanyahu because next year is going to be an election year and he needs to succeed in returning the remaining captives back to Israel. He also needs to succeed in saying that he was able to destroy Hamas which was the goal that he set on October 7th of 2023 and it seems pretty clear that Israel has not yet achieved that goal and they continue to fight in Gaza. So I think getting the hostages back will be a political boon to Netanyahu. However, given that there are still months and months before the elections, the return of hostages may not be a long-standing boon if there is still a presence of Hamas and Hamas activity in Gaza. His opponents could define him as being unable to end the hostilities with Gaza or unable to defeat Gaza as he claimed he would two years ago.

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Netanyahu eyes political win amid Middle East turmoil: Ambassador

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