Texas Democrats who left the state two weeks ago to stop a vote on a new congressional map that favored Republicans are beginning to return after California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced an effort to remap California congressional districts in a way that would favor Democrats. What could redistricting mean for the 2026 midterm elections?

Texas legislators are moving forward with a new redistricting map that is expected to make five Democratic congressional seats more competitive for Republicans. This development follows the return of Texas House Democrats, who had previously left the state to block the vote. In response, California Democrats have proposed their own map, aiming to make five Republican-held seats more favorable for Democrats, though the process in California requires both legislative approval and a public vote.

These redistricting efforts come at a time when Republicans hold a narrow three-seat majority in the U.S. House. The changes in both states could influence which party controls the House after the 2026 midterm elections. While the Texas map is likely to pass soon, California's proposal faces a more complex approval process, including a statewide ballot.

How redistricting in Texas, California would impact midterm elections

This morning, the Texas House could reconvene. State Democrats who fled for the more than two weeks are starting to return. And this could tee up a vote on a new redistricting map that would potentially add five Republican seats to the House. But California is trying to counteract their efforts with its own maps, something former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy says he is trying to fight. Instead of having nine competitive seats, it will only have two. So it's not a five-seat change. This is a nine-seat change. They take in counties, they go split counties 116 times, cities 145 times. This is politicians picking the voters, not the voters selecting their elected official. I want to bring in CBS News political reporter Hunter Woodall, who joins us from our D.C. bureau. Hunter, good to see you, my friend. So do we know how many Democrats have returned? And obviously, this return must mean that these maps are going to pass, right? Well, good morning, Vlad. We actually just got some news in the last few minutes that Texas House Democrats have announced they're coming back today. And that really does set up this map, this Texas map that is going to take five Democratic congressional seats and essentially make them more winnable for Republicans, is expected to pass any day now. Texas Democrats obviously have been opposing these maps. They fought the state to deny the maps from being passed in the first special session. But now that that first special session is over and now that California is responding, Texas Democrats had signaled for a few days that they would likely return to the state, and it looks like that's exactly what's happening today. All right. So let's talk about what's going on with California and their efforts. What can you tell us? Well, it's interesting, Vlad, you played that clip of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy outlining what's happening in California. So on the surface, California Democrats proposed on Friday taking five Republican congressional seats and making them more winnable for Democrats. So that would essentially counter what's happening in Texas. But also under the surface, I was looking at election data a few moments ago. There's several House seats that Democrats narrowly won in 2024. These were seats that had been held by Republicans heading into the general election. Democrats then won in the 2024 general. There's an expectation here that this new draft map that California is trying to pass may actually make those battleground seats that Democrats narrowly won, some of them more winnable for Democrats, so they don't have to put as much energy there. So it is, it does go a little bit past that five seats for five seats counter comparing Texas to California. Also though, California, this map is going to be much harder to pass than what's happening in Texas right now. California, this is going to have to go through the legislature, but also be put on the ballot for voters to weigh in on likely this fall. In Texas, the changes that the Republicans are making just has to be decided by the legislature. In California, voters have a say as well. So if California's maps do get passed along with Texas, what are we looking at when it comes to the midterms? That is the essential thing here, and that is why this really matters. Essentially right now, Republicans in the U.S. House have a very narrow three-seat majority. So if Democrats were to win back three seats, essentially they would win back the House next fall. Now, all this back and forth on redistricting, it remains to be seen how much that number could change because so many of these districts in Texas are likely unwinnable for Democrats. Not all of them, but several of them. And when this back and forth goes and goes, it still remains to be seen what that final number will be. But essentially, what is happening in California, what is happening in Texas, looms large over how campaigns will act in these 2026 midterms, and surely which party will have more of an advantage heading into the 2026 election, and who could control the U.S. House for the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency. All right, Hunter Woodall, breaking it down for us this morning. Thank you, my friend.

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Breakdown