Tiffany Wilding, economist at Pacific Investment Management Co. (Pimco), says the labor market is slowing but not falling off of a cliff. Speaking on "Bloomberg Surveillance," Wilding says the Federal Reserve has room to cut rates at least one more time amid the potential for more job losses.

Washington

Andrew Wilding of Pimco analyzed alternative data sources and noted that while the U.S. labor market is slowing, the decline remains gradual rather than abrupt. He pointed to early signs of increasing job separations and layoffs, as indicated by corporate announcements and rising WARN data, which may signal more job losses ahead.

Wilding argued that these developments provide the Federal Reserve with justification for at least one more rate cut, balancing the risks between inflation and employment. He emphasized that the Fed remains attentive to both sides of its dual mandate, with caution around future policy moves as inflation remains above target and labor market risks increase.

Federal reserve has room for more rate cuts, Pimco's Wilding says

How much have you been able to plug the data from your end of things based on alternative sources, based on earnings, based on sentiment surveys? Yeah, I mean, when we look at the range of data, basically the conclusion that we come to is that the momentum has continued to slow, but that slowing has still been relatively gradual. So we're not falling off a cliff. The labor market is not, you know, sort of plunging into the abyss. But nevertheless, it's continuing to lose momentum. You know, I think maybe a little bit more concerningly is that we have started to see some early indications of actual separations or job losses picking up. We've seen various corporate announcements on this. You know, the Challenger survey, which leads, warned data, which is companies have to warn their states of layoffs, you know, that has started to tick up. That also tends to lead claims, you know, by around three months. So it does suggest there is, you know, some potential for job losses. You know, now, ultimately, you know, how big that that will be is obviously difficult to gauge. But, you know, I think there is enough evidence here for the Fed to continue to cut rates, you know, at least one more time from a risk management perspective. You know, there's this debate right now, inflation or jobs, and the dual mandate very much in conflict. And Eric Johnston of Cantor Fitzgerald was on the show earlier this morning, and he said, Ultimately, it comes down to, yes, sure, the labor market has seen some cracks or at least some slowing down. It seems as though the Fed has abandoned their goal of 2 percent inflation. And for the most part, that is going to drive policy to be more accommodative and responsive to the labor side of things. Do you agree with that? No, I actually think that the Fed is trying to be, you know, I think they're trying to be more forward looking here and they're trying to assess, you know, they're very wary that inflation is above target. I think they probably would have moved faster. We wouldn't be debating December if inflation were lower right now. So I certainly think that the Fed has their eye on inflation as well. You know, I think the big question in terms of these increasing downside risks to the labor market, you know, is if you do if those risks do materialize, you have opening of slack that is ultimately going to put downward pressure on inflation in the future. So I think you have to weigh both sides of the mandate here. The Fed seems to be doing that, you know, and that's why they're you know, some of them are more cautious around December.

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Breakdown