Voters in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District will head to the polls Tuesday in what has become a test of Democrats' recent electoral momentum. CBS News political reporter Hunter Woodall has the latest.

Tennessee

Tennessee's 7th congressional district is set for a special election, with Republican Matt Van Epps and Democrat Afton Bain competing in a race that has drawn significant attention due to its unexpected competitiveness. The district, traditionally a Republican stronghold, has seen major financial investments from both parties and increased campaign activity, including involvement from national figures.

While Democrats are not expected to win the seat, they are aiming to keep the margin within single digits, which would represent a notable improvement over previous results and could help build momentum ahead of the midterm elections. Low voter turnout is anticipated due to poor weather and the timing after Thanksgiving, adding to the unpredictability of the outcome.

Democrats look to continue momentum in Tennessee special election

Welcome back to Takeout. Tennessee's 7th congressional district is going to have a special election tomorrow. Political obsessives like me are very addicted to special elections. We watch them because we can't help ourselves. We watch them so closely. Now, there's no front-runner in this race, which is why it's particularly interesting. Because this is Trump country, 20-plus in 2024. The candidates, Republican Matt Van Epps, Democrat Afton Bain. This is razor-thin in ways that we would not expect, even for the sort of peculiarities that often come with special elections. Hunter Woodall joins us now. Break down the peculiarities. Major, this is a weird one. Now, think about this district. It's a sprawling district in Tennessee, reliably red like you talked about, but has a little bit of Nashville in there. And that's what makes the difference. You know, Nashville is likely tending to vote more Democratic, and that has given Democrats a chance here. But also, special elections are just so unpredictable. Low turnout, initially. Low turnout. It sounds like the weather's not too great down there for our friends who are coming out late. Right after Thanksgiving, a particularly low turnout probability, and lots of money getting thrown in by both sides, not just Republicans, but Democrats. That's exactly right. The, you know, Trump-affiliated MAGA, Inc., they kicked in about $1.6 million, according to federal records I was just looking at. House Majority PAC, that's the Dems, around a million. So, not—you know, this is significant money that's going into this. And Republicans really normally shouldn't be worrying about this, but we have seen during the Trump era, these reliably red special elections can get weird, though they rarely do flip. Though, you know, there's Democrats like Conor Lamb who've done it, but that was a more competitive, moderate seat. That's not really what we're seeing here. And what are the range of expectations? I don't want to mislead our audience and think, well, Democrats are going to win in this place. They're probably not. I mean, the retiring Republican, Mark Green, won by 22 points, OK? The margins are staggering in favorability for Republicans. But the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, had a teller rally today. President Trump called into that, which means there is some level of concern when Democrats talk about their expectations. What kind of numbers do they use? Right. I mean, you're going to hear a lot about balance of power and all this, and really, it seems like Republicans are going to lose-lose here. They're supposed to win it in their eyes, but if they don't, you know, perform well, Democrats are going to seize on it. You're already seeing that Democratic expectation setting. Single digits seems to be the talking point. If they can get this race within single digits, after Mark Green, the person that held the seat last year, you know, he won this by, like you said, more than 20 points. Democrats get those single digits, they're going to feel good. It doesn't seem like they think they're going to win, but obviously they're going to try and project confidence. But anything they do, they're going to try and use to build momentum going into the midterms. And very quickly, Hunter, in a context like this, if you're a Republican on the fence about seeking reelection, meaning you might not, and you see a close outcome in this particular congressional district, that might push you over into the retirement category. That's the thing. I mean, if you're seeing a lot of money, a lot of campaigning going into this, if you're a Republican who's been in a safe district, you're probably going to look at this and go, I don't know how much I want to do this again. How much do I want to do this again? I ask that question myself more than once in any given week. Hunter Woodall, but I digress.

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