LeadStory

Will the Fed cut rates again in December

Asked 15 days ago

Answer

Market experts and strategists are divided on whether the Fed will cut rates in December. Some, like UBS and iCapital, expect a cut due to softening labor markets and rising unemployment, while Fed minutes and several officials suggest most members see a December cut as unlikely. The possibility remains on the table, but uncertainty and debate persist among policymakers and market participants.

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CNBC

Rising unemployment rate suggests Fed will cut rates in December

CNBC · 15 days ago
CNBC
CNBC
15 days ago
  • The Federal Reserve is considering a rate cut in December due to a rising unemployment rate and steady inflation projections. 21s
  • A December rate cut would be the third risk management move, but further cuts next year are uncertain without a more dovish Fed. 44s
  • Private credit markets face risks from high-valuation deals made in 2021-2022 and concerns about liquidity and defaults. 1m 21s
  • Default rates in private credit remain at historical averages between 2% and 3.5%, with aggregate credit quality holding up. 2m 50s
  • Ongoing questions about marks and liquidity in private credit markets are expected to be key issues moving forward. 3m 8s

References

Rising unemployment rate suggests Fed will cut rates in December
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CNBC
15 days ago
Rising unemployment rate suggests Fed will cut rates in December

Discussion centers on Fed odds, referencing a Wall Street Journal piece suggesting a potential hawkish rate cut in December. Basikas notes little has changed to justify a December cut, but rising unemployment and stable core PCE could prompt a risk management move.

Rising unemployment rate suggests Fed will cut rates in December
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CNBC
15 days ago
Rising unemployment rate suggests Fed will cut rates in December

Basikas suggests a December cut would be a third risk management move, but expresses skepticism about further cuts next year without a more dovish Fed stance.

Fed speak has spooked markets, Roland says
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Bloomberg
19 days ago
Fed speak has spooked markets, Roland says

Fed officials initially spooked markets by signaling caution, but John Williams suggested this morning that a December rate cut is back on the table.

UBS' Lovell: We think the Fed will cut in December
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CNBC
19 days ago
UBS' Lovell: We think the Fed will cut in December

Lovell emphasizes that fundamentals remain strong, and expects the Fed to cut rates in December due to softening labor market data from both official and private sources.

10-year yield holds near 4.1% range following Fed minutes
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CNBC
21 days ago
10-year yield holds near 4.1% range following Fed minutes

Fed minutes indicate that a December rate cut is considered 'likely not appropriate' by many Fed members.

Fed minutes reveal broad support for leaving the funds rate unchanged
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CNBC
21 days ago
Fed minutes reveal broad support for leaving the funds rate unchanged

Many participants suggested keeping the funds rate unchanged for the rest of the year; only several supported further cuts.

Fed minutes reveal broad support for leaving the funds rate unchanged
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CNBC
21 days ago
Fed minutes reveal broad support for leaving the funds rate unchanged

Strong, differing views emerged about the near-term policy course, with most participants appearing to favor not cutting rates in December.

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